TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083138
Played Sep 6Finished
Jiri Dedek
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117116116––
Jan Steffan
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Dedek to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Dedek above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-6
Point 70 set 4, 10-6 — our read held Jiri Dedek at 59.3%
70 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jiri Dedek 14–12 Jan Steffan Jan Steffan has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dedek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Dedek
Correct
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dedek 1494 vs Steffan 1422
Dedek
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dedek 60% vs Steffan 20%
Dedek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dedek 40% vs Steffan 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dedek +1 · Steffan -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Dedek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDedek 1.44 / Steffan 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Dedek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083138
Dedek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 150 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it98% 89 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it79% 112 of 141
Steffan2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 93 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDedek8wins
AwaySteffan2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDedek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDedek100%5 of 5
AwaySteffan40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dedek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S2Dedek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S3Dedek8Steffan2n = 10Dedek took 8 of 10
S4Dedek4Steffan5n = 9Steffan took 5 of 9
S5Dedek4Steffan0n = 4Dedek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDedekSteffanD − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.137.3+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDedekSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 916 vs 462 / 96451.6%47.9%473 / 916 vs 462 / 964Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DedekDedek 1.44/Steffan 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Dedek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dedek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 3 · 17:30J. Dedek—1114119113J. Steffan—131261172
WJun 3 · 14:30J. Dedek—124911113J. Steffan—101111582
LMay 21 · 10:00J. Dedek—1151141J. Steffan—13117113
WMay 4 · 24:00J. Dedek—111011113J. Steffan—712781
WFeb 18 · 11:30J. Dedek—511118113J. Steffan—11781122
WFeb 6 · 13:00J. Dedek—11812113J. Steffan—9111051
WJan 4 · 16:00J. Dedek—11612113J. Steffan—7111031
WDec 28 · 24:30J. Dedek—1111113J. Steffan—3390
WDec 22 · 11:00J. Dedek—612116113J. Steffan—111061132
LOct 7 · 03:30J. Dedek—811991J. Steffan—11911113
J. Dedek10
LSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050WSep 6 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91611681J. Dedek1.8011311113WSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781LSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100WSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 15:00J. Dedek1.3311311113F. Jungman3.25911931LSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110WSep 4 · 21:07M. Placek2.70711561J. Dedek1.4011611113LSep 4 · 20:00J. Dedek2.757680V. Postelt1.401111113WSep 4 · 19:30M. Placek2.506360J. Dedek1.501111113
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113WSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113LSep 4 · 12:30M. Kolar1.301111113J. Steffan3.408780
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