TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082487
Played Sep 6Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121513511611––
Jan Trefny
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:18 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 83 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 58.5%
83 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 1–3 Jan Trefny Radim Pavelka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:18What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Trefny
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1572 vs Trefny 1586
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Trefny 60%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 50% vs Trefny 70%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Trefny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pavelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.61 / Trefny 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Pavelka)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082487
Pavelka1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 103 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it76% 73 of 96
Trefny2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 23 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back23% 6 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePavelka1wins
AwayTrefny3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderTrefny leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka25%1 of 4
AwayTrefnyn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka4Trefny0n = 4Pavelka took 4 of 4
S2Pavelka1Trefny3n = 4Trefny took 3 of 4
S3Pavelka2Trefny2n = 4split evenly
S4Pavelka1Trefny3n = 4Trefny took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPavelkaTrefnyP − TBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match39.543.0−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 885 vs 45 / 9350.5%48.4%447 / 885 vs 45 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.61/Trefny 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 31 · 16:00R. Pavelka—116551J. Trefny—91111113
WJul 25 · 23:00R. Pavelka—11312113J. Trefny—3111061
LJul 15 · 20:58R. Pavelka—11511882J. Trefny—711911113
LJul 15 · 19:00R. Pavelka—1211108102J. Trefny—1061211123
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191LSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760
J. Trefny10
WSep 7 · 06:00J. Svoboda1.251165121J. Trefny3.7581111143WSep 6 · 21:28J. Trefny1.671112113J. Dedek2.1091050LSep 6 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.2581111113J. Trefny1.57117741WSep 6 · 18:30J. Trefny1.831111123J. Dedek1.8359100LSep 6 · 17:29J. Trefny1.6714711842J. Dedek2.101211711113WSep 6 · 16:00J. Trefny1.5711147123F. Jungman2.2551211101WSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113WSep 6 · 14:00J. Trefny2.251111133J. Dedek1.5788110LSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Trefny2.6341111113J. Dedek1.44117781
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