TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077457
Played Sep 5Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1156111113117119
Tomas Holik
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Tomas Holik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 73.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 1–0 Tomas Holik Tomas Holik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:11What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Holik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1571 vs Holik 1531
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 60% vs Holik 0%
Pavelka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 60% vs Holik 20%
Pavelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Holik -5
Holik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holik) · live re-read · sealed at 26% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.25 / Holik 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Holik)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077457
Pavelka2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 78 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Holik1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePavelka1wins
AwayHolik0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPavelka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPavelkaHolikP − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match50.045.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 886 vs 73 / 16450.5%44.5%447 / 886 vs 73 / 164Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikPavelka 2.25/Holik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka—1161111113T. Holik—51113792
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191LSep 4 · 15:30F. Just1.381111113R. Pavelka2.802760
T. Holik10
WSep 5 · 09:00M. Sedlak3.252690T. Holik1.331111113WSep 5 · 08:00T. Holik1.831191011223M. Sedlak1.83811125202LSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113LAug 17 · 12:59R. Wagner1.531111113T. Holik2.388680LAug 17 · 12:00R. Wagner1.6121111113T. Holik2.20117841LAug 17 · 11:00F. Pusch1.731311113T. Holik2.0011670LAug 17 · 10:30T. Holik3.405790V. Cermak1.301111113LAug 17 · 08:58T. Holik1.8069130J. Zuzanek1.911111153LAug 17 · 08:30T. Holik1.917111371R. Wagner1.80111311113LAug 17 · 07:00T. Holik1.8378120F. Pusch1.831111143
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