TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12444194
Played Aug 17Finished
Tomas Holik
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711911––––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:36 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Holik above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 72.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Holik 0–3 Vladimir Cermak Tomas Holik has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:36What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Cermak
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1573 vs Cermak 1572
Holik
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 40% vs Cermak 0%
Holik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 50% vs Cermak 20%
Holik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik -3 · Cermak -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (0%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 3.40 / Cermak 1.30
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Cermak)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12444194
Holik3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 13 of 24
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Cermak1.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 152 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it92% 78 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it81% 121 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHolik0wins
AwayCermak3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderCermak leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik1Cermak2n = 3Cermak took 2 of 3
S2Holik0Cermak3n = 3Cermak took 3 of 3
S3Holik1Cermak2n = 3Cermak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricHolikCermakH − CBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match28.741.7−13.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 164 vs 539 / 104247%51.7%77 / 164 vs 539 / 1042Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakHolik 3.40/Cermak 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 15 · 09:00T. Holik—11710V. Cermak—1311113
LJun 15 · 07:30T. Holik—113861V. Cermak—71111113
LFeb 10 · 20:30T. Holik—75111152V. Cermak—111198113
T. Holik10
WSep 5 · 09:00M. Sedlak3.252690T. Holik1.331111113WSep 5 · 08:00T. Holik1.831191011223M. Sedlak1.83811125202LSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792LSep 5 · 06:00T. Holik1.918750J. Svoboda1.801111113LAug 17 · 12:59R. Wagner1.531111113T. Holik2.388680LAug 17 · 12:00R. Wagner1.6121111113T. Holik2.20117841LAug 17 · 11:00F. Pusch1.731311113T. Holik2.0011670LAug 17 · 08:58T. Holik1.8069130J. Zuzanek1.911111153LAug 17 · 08:30T. Holik1.917111371R. Wagner1.80111311113LAug 17 · 07:00T. Holik1.8378120F. Pusch1.831111143
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192
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