TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081762
Played Sep 6Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411511––––
Martin Sobisek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 47 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 58.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 17–23 Martin Sobisek Vladimir Cermak has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:08What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sobisek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-23 in 40
Sobisek
Correct
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1563 vs Sobisek 1522
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 20% vs Sobisek 40%
Sobisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 10% vs Sobisek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -2 · Sobisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobisek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 2.00 / Sobisek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cermak)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081762
Cermak2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 86 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Sobisek1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 106 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it98% 58 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it78% 76 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak7wins
AwaySobisek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak100%5 of 5
AwaySobisek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S2Cermak7Sobisek3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S3Cermak5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Cermak2Sobisek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakSobisekC − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.734.9+0.8per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime539 / 1051 vs 555 / 118851.3%46.7%539 / 1051 vs 555 / 1188Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekCermak 2.00/Sobisek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 06:30V. Cermak—51280M. Sobisek—1114113
LJul 20 · 03:30V. Cermak—9980M. Sobisek—1111113
WJul 20 · 01:30V. Cermak—711118113M. Sobisek—11751152
WJul 19 · 21:00V. Cermak—11118113M. Sobisek—791141
WJul 19 · 19:00V. Cermak—71411133M. Sobisek—11129111
WJul 16 · 12:30V. Cermak—1411113M. Sobisek—12990
LJul 16 · 08:30V. Cermak—8450M. Sobisek—1111113
WJun 28 · 12:30V. Cermak—1212410113M. Sobisek—1010111292
WJun 28 · 08:59V. Cermak—1211113M. Sobisek—10970
WJun 28 · 08:30V. Cermak—1114113M. Sobisek—81260
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192LAug 28 · 12:30J. Hradecky1.5011611133V. Cermak2.507118111
M. Sobisek10
LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890WSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123LSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:30J. Hradecky1.809411131M. Sobisek1.9111116153
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