TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13072462
Played Sep 3Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
15131151012117––
Martin Sobisek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:09 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 84 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 61.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 52–36 Martin Sobisek Martin Sobisek has won 36 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-36 in 88
Tuma
Correct
gap of 16 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1634 vs Sobisek 1531
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 80% vs Sobisek 40%
Tuma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 90% vs Sobisek 30%
Tuma
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +1 · Sobisek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.73 / Sobisek 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Tuma)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13072462
Tuma1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 148 of 249
Up 2–0, closes it93% 70 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it76% 112 of 147
Sobisek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 136 of 351
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma4wins
AwaySobisek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma50%3 of 6
AwaySobisek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma6Sobisek4n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S2Tuma4Sobisek6n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S3Tuma5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuma2Sobisek4n = 6Sobisek took 4 of 6
S5Tuma2Sobisek3n = 5Sobisek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaSobisekT − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.538.3−1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime773 / 1477 vs 556 / 118852.3%46.8%773 / 1477 vs 556 / 1188Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaTuma 1.73/Sobisek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 10:30D. Tuma—10760M. Sobisek—1211113
LAug 19 · 07:30D. Tuma—12411972M. Sobisek—1011711113
LAug 17 · 10:30D. Tuma—11781252M. Sobisek—4111110113
LAug 17 · 07:30D. Tuma—8860M. Sobisek—1111113
WAug 15 · 24:00D. Tuma—911115113M. Sobisek—11571162
WAug 14 · 24:00D. Tuma—111199113M. Sobisek—89111192
LAug 10 · 23:30D. Tuma—68121152M. Sobisek—1111107113
LAug 2 · 12:58D. Tuma—116621M. Sobisek—31111113
WAug 2 · 11:00D. Tuma—1111113M. Sobisek—3580
WJul 28 · 13:30D. Tuma—1311123M. Sobisek—118100
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:00D. Tuma1.831113113S. Kadavy1.8391180
M. Sobisek10
LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890WSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123WSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112
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