TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13051789
Played Sep 1Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191311118––––
Simon Kadavy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Kadavy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Simon Kadavy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Simon Kadavy at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 22–19 Simon Kadavy Simon Kadavy has won 19 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kadavy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-19 in 41
Tuma
Correct
gap of 3 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1592 vs Kadavy 1685
Kadavy
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 80% vs Kadavy 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 50% vs Kadavy 90%
Kadavy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +4 · Kadavy +2
Tuma
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kadavy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.83 / Kadavy 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kadavy)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13051789
Tuma1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kadavy1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma6wins
AwayKadavy4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuman = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKadavy37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma2Kadavy8n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S2Tuma5Kadavy5n = 10split evenly
S3Tuma7Kadavy3n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S4Tuma5Kadavy4n = 9Tuma took 5 of 9
S5Tuma3Kadavy1n = 4Tuma took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaKadavyT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.838.2+3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime772 / 1479 vs 260 / 52752.2%49.3%772 / 1479 vs 260 / 527Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyTuma 1.83/Kadavy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 03:30D. Tuma—11117882S. Kadavy—571111113
LAug 29 · 02:30D. Tuma—71180S. Kadavy—1113113
WAug 14 · 23:00D. Tuma—1081111113S. Kadavy—12116872
LJul 18 · 02:00D. Tuma—1081181S. Kadavy—12111113
WJul 3 · 20:00D. Tuma—861111113S. Kadavy—11115872
LJul 3 · 17:30D. Tuma—1011891S. Kadavy—12711113
WJul 3 · 16:00D. Tuma—91111113S. Kadavy—117881
WJun 19 · 23:30D. Tuma—711119113S. Kadavy—11911182
WMay 22 · 20:59D. Tuma—11811113S. Kadavy—411681
WMay 22 · 20:00D. Tuma—91111113S. Kadavy—118991
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152
S. Kadavy10
WSep 5 · 03:28S. Kadavy1.5711811113R. Krejci2.25611491WSep 5 · 02:30S. Kadavy1.801111113D. Kouble1.919180WSep 5 · 01:30T. Janata1.73138951S. Kadavy2.00111111113WSep 5 · 24:00S. Kadavy1.4471111113R. Krejci2.63118991WSep 4 · 23:00P. Pycha2.0057150S. Kadavy1.731111173WSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pikous1.251111113S. Kadavy3.759630WSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:30D. Hofman1.50111168113S. Kadavy2.5097111182LSep 1 · 20:58J. Stolfa1.73111616123S. Kadavy2.0081814101
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