TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071748
Played Sep 4Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116113––––
Simon Kadavy
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 70.6% is still 70.6%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
70.6%
70.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Simon Kadavy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Marcel Pikous at 70.6%
51 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 3–1 Simon Kadavy Simon Kadavy has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Pikous
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1585 vs Kadavy 1613
Kadavy
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 20% vs Kadavy 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 10% vs Kadavy 50%
Kadavy
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous -1 · Kadavy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Pikous) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 1.25 / Kadavy 3.75
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Pikous)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13071748
Pikous1.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 110 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it88% 53 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 76 of 100
Kadavy3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 44 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePikous3wins
AwayKadavy1wins
Pikous leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous2Kadavy2n = 4split evenly
S2Pikous3Kadavy1n = 4Pikous took 3 of 4
S3Pikous3Kadavy1n = 4Pikous took 3 of 4
S4Pikous2Kadavy1n = 3Pikous took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPikousKadavyP − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.026.2+11.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 693 vs 262 / 53452.8%49.1%366 / 693 vs 262 / 534Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousPikous 1.25/Kadavy 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.2%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 4 · 16:30M. Pikous—1111113S. Kadavy—9630
WMar 12 · 16:30M. Pikous—81111113S. Kadavy—114531
WApr 6 · 20:00M. Pikous—11118113S. Kadavy—671141
LJan 11 · 21:00M. Pikous—9711101S. Kadavy—11112123
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113
S. Kadavy10
WSep 5 · 03:28S. Kadavy1.5711811113R. Krejci2.25611491WSep 5 · 02:30S. Kadavy1.801111113D. Kouble1.919180WSep 5 · 01:30T. Janata1.73138951S. Kadavy2.00111111113WSep 5 · 24:00S. Kadavy1.4471111113R. Krejci2.63118991WSep 4 · 23:00P. Pycha2.0057150S. Kadavy1.731111173WSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:30D. Hofman1.50111168113S. Kadavy2.5097111182LSep 1 · 20:58J. Stolfa1.73111616123S. Kadavy2.0081814101LSep 1 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.8011118113S. Kadavy1.91971171
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