TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077663
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Tazler
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91111810121191412
Marcel Pikous
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:48 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 107 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Marcel Pikous at 63.5%
107 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 3–1 Marcel Pikous Marcel Pikous has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:48What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pikous
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Tazler
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1687 vs Pikous 1660
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 60% vs Pikous 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 50% vs Pikous 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler +2 · Pikous -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Pikous) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 2.75 / Pikous 1.40
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Pikous)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13077663
Tazler2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 92 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back28% 30 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back16% 10 of 62
Pikous1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 112 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTazler3wins
AwayPikous1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderTazler leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler2Pikous2n = 4split evenly
S2Tazler2Pikous2n = 4split evenly
S3Tazler4Pikous0n = 4Tazler took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTazlerPikousT − PBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.032.0+5.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 705 vs 365 / 69154.8%52.8%386 / 705 vs 365 / 691Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousTazler 2.75/Pikous 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 21 · 01:00J. Tazler—591111113M. Pikous—11117842
LJul 11 · 06:30J. Tazler—961281M. Pikous—111110113
WJun 23 · 22:30J. Tazler—1111113M. Pikous—8590
WJun 23 · 21:30J. Tazler—1111113M. Pikous—8590
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870WSep 6 · 03:30J. Tazler1.671112123K. Schopf2.10310100
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113
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