TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083992
Played Sep 7Finished
Karel Schopf
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511411311––––
Jakub Tazler
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Schopf to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarel Schopf above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 45 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Karel Schopf at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Karel Schopf 6–9 Jakub Tazler Karel Schopf has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 9h before this match
Tazler beat Schopf 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tazler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Tazler
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schopf 1557 vs Tazler 1617
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schopf 0% vs Tazler 20%
Tazler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schopf 20% vs Tazler 50%
Tazler
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schopf -5 · Tazler -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Tazler) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchopf 2.38 / Tazler 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Tazler)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083992
Schopf2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 25 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Tazler1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 90 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 70 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchopf2wins
AwayTazler8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTazler leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchopf66.7%2 of 3
AwayTazler100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schopf3Tazler7n = 10Tazler took 7 of 10
S2Schopf3Tazler7n = 10Tazler took 7 of 10
S3Schopf1Tazler9n = 10Tazler took 9 of 10
S4Schopf3Tazler2n = 5Schopf took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchopfTazlerS − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.437.6−7.2per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchopfTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime229 / 459 vs 389 / 71049.9%54.8%229 / 459 vs 389 / 710Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TazlerSchopf 2.38/Tazler 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Tazler · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf—6440J. Tazler—1111113
LSep 6 · 15:00K. Schopf—411141142J. Tazler—118165113
LSep 6 · 03:30K. Schopf—310100J. Tazler—1112123
WSep 5 · 22:30K. Schopf—12119113J. Tazler—1071141
LAug 5 · 02:00K. Schopf—116751J. Tazler—91111113
LAug 3 · 13:30K. Schopf—1016481J. Tazler—121411113
WAug 3 · 10:30K. Schopf—11711113J. Tazler—811771
LAug 3 · 09:00K. Schopf—8980J. Tazler—1111113
LAug 3 · 07:00K. Schopf—7680J. Tazler—1111113
LJun 24 · 03:30K. Schopf—71280J. Tazler—1114113
K. Schopf10
LSep 7 · 01:00K. Schopf2.7534100V. Vejvoda1.401111123LSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660LSep 6 · 22:30M. Sychra2.251111123K. Schopf1.5798100LSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:00R. Rose1.331111113K. Schopf3.258620LSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142WSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 03:30J. Tazler1.671112123K. Schopf2.10310100LSep 6 · 01:30K. Schopf1.5710690M. Sychra2.251211113WSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870WSep 6 · 03:30J. Tazler1.671112123K. Schopf2.10310100WSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122
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