TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083363
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Tazler
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81111911131412811
Jiri Louda
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJiri Louda to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 108 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jiri Louda at 58.6%
108 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 1–3 Jiri Louda Jakub Tazler has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Louda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Louda
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1638 vs Louda 1661
Louda
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 40% vs Louda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 60% vs Louda 40%
Tazler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler -1 · Louda +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Louda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 2.38 / Louda 1.53
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Louda)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13083363
Tazler2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 95 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back29% 31 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back16% 10 of 62
Louda1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 196 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it87% 88 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it73% 139 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTazler1wins
AwayLouda3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLouda leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTazlern = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayLouda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler1Louda3n = 4Louda took 3 of 4
S2Tazler2Louda2n = 4split evenly
S3Tazler2Louda2n = 4split evenly
S4Tazler0Louda3n = 3Louda took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricTazlerLoudaT − LBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match37.542.2−4.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 708 vs 611 / 120454.9%50.8%389 / 708 vs 611 / 1204Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaTazler 2.38/Louda 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Louda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 11 · 07:00J. Tazler—11890J. Louda—1311113
LJun 21 · 21:00J. Tazler—114551J. Louda—41111113
WJun 21 · 20:30J. Tazler—911119123J. Louda—115811102
LMar 5 · 17:30J. Tazler—91112672J. Louda—1191011113
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870WSep 6 · 03:30J. Tazler1.671112123K. Schopf2.10310100WSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122
J. Louda10
WSep 7 · 03:30M. Sychra2.40371191J. Louda1.5011117113WSep 7 · 02:30J. Louda1.731412113V. Vejvoda2.00121080LSep 7 · 01:30M. Sychra2.5012111112113J. Louda1.50149131062WSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660WSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040WSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113LSep 6 · 10:00A. Brazda2.6391111143J. Louda1.441198121LSep 4 · 09:30P. Saleny1.83111011113J. Louda1.83712481WSep 4 · 08:30J. Louda1.91131011123R. Wagner1.8011129101
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