TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071033
Played Sep 4Finished
Jiri Louda
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131110121191210––
Richard Wagner
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:18 and never touched — 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Louda above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 88 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Richard Wagner at 67.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Louda 4–2 Richard Wagner Richard Wagner has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:18What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Louda
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Louda 1623 vs Wagner 1740
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Louda 20% vs Wagner 60%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Louda 10% vs Wagner 50%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Louda -3 · Wagner +1
Louda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLouda 1.91 / Wagner 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wagner)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071033
Louda1.91
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 65 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back14% 12 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 50
Wagner1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 57 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 31 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeLouda4wins
AwayWagner2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLouda leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLouda80%4 of 5
AwayWagnern = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Louda5Wagner1n = 6Louda took 5 of 6
S2Louda3Wagner3n = 6split evenly
S3Louda2Wagner4n = 6Wagner took 4 of 6
S4Louda4Wagner1n = 5Louda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricLoudaWagnerL − WBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match42.837.5+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLoudaWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime610 / 1203 vs 88 / 16950.7%52.1%610 / 1203 vs 88 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerLouda 1.91/Wagner 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Louda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 4 · 08:30J. Louda—131011123R. Wagner—11129101
WAug 27 · 23:00J. Louda—111110113R. Wagner—971231
LAug 23 · 17:29J. Louda—6118121R. Wagner—11711143
WJul 26 · 08:59J. Louda—1111113R. Wagner—7460
LJul 26 · 08:00J. Louda—111061192R. Wagner—812114113
WJul 19 · 20:00J. Louda—119911113R. Wagner—61111992
J. Louda10
WSep 7 · 03:30M. Sychra2.40371191J. Louda1.5011117113WSep 7 · 02:30J. Louda1.731412113V. Vejvoda2.00121080LSep 7 · 01:30M. Sychra2.5012111112113J. Louda1.50149131062WSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660WSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113WSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040WSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113LSep 6 · 10:00A. Brazda2.6391111143J. Louda1.441198121LSep 4 · 09:30P. Saleny1.83111011113J. Louda1.83712481
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
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