TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077916
Played Sep 5Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161113116119––
Robin Pacha
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Robin Pacha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Richard Wagner at 58.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 4–2 Robin Pacha Robin Pacha has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Wagner
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1687 vs Pacha 1628
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 40% vs Pacha 60%
Pacha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 40% vs Pacha 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -3 · Pacha +1
Wagner
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pacha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.61 / Pacha 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Wagner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077916
Wagner1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Pacha2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 11 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeWagner4wins
AwayPacha2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderWagner leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner80%4 of 5
AwayPachan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner5Pacha1n = 6Wagner took 5 of 6
S2Wagner3Pacha3n = 6split evenly
S3Wagner3Pacha3n = 6split evenly
S4Wagner3Pacha2n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricWagnerPachaW − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match43.738.7+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerPachaBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 181 vs 182 / 33052.5%55.2%95 / 181 vs 182 / 330Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.61/Pacha 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner—111111113R. Pacha—613691
WAug 8 · 20:00R. Wagner—1115123R. Pacha—413100
LJul 19 · 20:58R. Wagner—1361091R. Pacha—111112113
WJul 19 · 18:00R. Wagner—1111119113R. Pacha—69131142
LJul 18 · 19:30R. Wagner—111171172R. Pacha—137119113
WJul 12 · 01:00R. Wagner—11911113R. Pacha—811491
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151WSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny2.2061151192R. Wagner1.61118117113
R. Pacha10
LSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161WSep 5 · 19:00R. Pacha1.671111113K. Schopf2.107580WAug 29 · 20:59R. Pacha1.5311119113M. Sobisek2.38761191LAug 29 · 20:00R. Pacha1.6711116882M. Sychra2.10761111113WAug 29 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.75155981R. Pacha1.40131111113LAug 29 · 18:00R. Pacha1.67149591V. Vejvoda2.10121111113WAug 23 · 20:58M. Sopko2.0011139792R. Pacha1.735111111113LAug 23 · 20:00M. Skakal2.251111113R. Pacha1.574950LAug 23 · 19:00M. Wagner1.83141414143R. Pacha1.83121612121
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