TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077314
Played Sep 5Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311911117118––
Denis Hofman
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Denis Hofman below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-8
Point 80 set 4, 10-8 — our read held Richard Wagner at 54.0%
80 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Richard Wagner 11–11 Denis Hofman Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:28What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1687 vs Hofman 1676
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Hofman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Hofman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +1 · Hofman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.73 / Hofman 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Wagner)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077314
Wagner1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Hofman2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 111 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back27% 35 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner6wins
AwayHofman4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner100%5 of 5
AwayHofman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner5Hofman5n = 10split evenly
S2Wagner5Hofman5n = 10split evenly
S3Wagner7Hofman3n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S4Wagner5Hofman2n = 7Wagner took 5 of 7
S5Wagner1Hofman2n = 3Hofman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerHofmanW − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.736.6+3.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerHofmanBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 181 vs 456 / 94952.5%48.1%95 / 181 vs 456 / 949Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.73/Hofman 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 19:30R. Wagner—126119123D. Hofman—1011711102
WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner—13911113D. Hofman—1111781
WAug 28 · 01:30R. Wagner—101114113D. Hofman—1281251
LAug 23 · 01:30R. Wagner—96111192D. Hofman—111139113
WAug 22 · 21:28R. Wagner—1111113D. Hofman—9730
LAug 22 · 20:00R. Wagner—61260D. Hofman—1114113
LAug 12 · 16:58R. Wagner—71161162D. Hofman—119114113
LAug 12 · 15:00R. Wagner—661171D. Hofman—11117113
WAug 12 · 12:58R. Wagner—1611113D. Hofman—14830
WAug 12 · 10:30R. Wagner—111112113D. Hofman—671451
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151WSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny2.2061151192R. Wagner1.61118117113
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141WSep 4 · 17:33M. Pikous2.05111081182D. Hofman1.65412113113LSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881WSep 4 · 15:00M. Pikous2.00611121162D. Hofman1.73115148113
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