TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071779
Played Sep 4Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111151214118611
Denis Hofman
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:39 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeDenis Hofman to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Denis Hofman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Denis Hofman at 54.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 30–33 Denis Hofman Marcel Pikous has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hofman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-33 in 63
Hofman
Correct
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1613 vs Hofman 1595
Pikous
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 20% vs Hofman 40%
Hofman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 10% vs Hofman 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous +1 · Hofman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Hofman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hofman form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 2.00 / Hofman 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Hofman)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071779
Pikous2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 40 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back29% 16 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Hofman1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 76 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it65% 47 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous1wins
AwayHofman9wins
6 of 10 to a deciderHofman leads 9–1, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous33.3%1 of 3
AwayHofman100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous3Hofman7n = 10Hofman took 7 of 10
S2Pikous5Hofman5n = 10split evenly
S3Pikous5Hofman5n = 10split evenly
S4Pikous2Hofman7n = 9Hofman took 7 of 9
S5Pikous1Hofman5n = 6Hofman took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousHofmanP − HBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.143.1−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousHofmanBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 690 vs 450 / 93952.9%47.9%365 / 690 vs 450 / 939Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HofmanPikous 2.00/Hofman 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Hofman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hofman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 24:00M. Pikous—11780D. Hofman—1311113
LAug 9 · 01:30M. Pikous—711591D. Hofman—11511113
LJul 30 · 22:30M. Pikous—11581182D. Hofman—711112113
LJul 22 · 02:59M. Pikous—491151D. Hofman—11117113
LJul 22 · 01:30M. Pikous—91111892D. Hofman—114611113
LJul 16 · 16:30M. Pikous—11127832D. Hofman—3101111113
LJul 12 · 01:30M. Pikous—71312592D. Hofman—11111011113
LJul 1 · 17:00M. Pikous—6111181D. Hofman—11613113
WJul 1 · 15:30M. Pikous—118115143D. Hofman—411711122
LJun 5 · 24:30M. Pikous—1081211102D. Hofman—1211102123
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141LSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 17:33M. Pikous2.05111081182D. Hofman1.65412113113LSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881
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