TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13076749
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118511811611––
Marcel Pikous
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Michal Regner at 66.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 31–30 Marcel Pikous Marcel Pikous has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-30 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1667 vs Pikous 1660
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 60% vs Pikous 40%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 60% vs Pikous 40%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -2 · Pikous +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pikous) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.00 / Pikous 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pikous)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13076749
Regner2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 113 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Pikous1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 112 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it89% 54 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwayPikous6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegnern = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPikous66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner1Pikous9n = 10Pikous took 9 of 10
S2Regner8Pikous2n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S3Regner3Pikous7n = 10Pikous took 7 of 10
S4Regner3Pikous5n = 8Pikous took 5 of 8
S5Regner2Pikous1n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerPikousR − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.040.6−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime515 / 1065 vs 365 / 69248.4%52.8%515 / 1065 vs 365 / 692Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousRegner 2.00/Pikous 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 01:30M. Regner—812571M. Pikous—111011113
LAug 9 · 24:30M. Regner—8960M. Pikous—1111113
LAug 6 · 01:30M. Regner—4870M. Pikous—1111113
LAug 4 · 22:30M. Regner—714691M. Pikous—111211113
WAug 3 · 02:30M. Regner—81111113M. Pikous—114561
WJul 30 · 23:30M. Regner—61311113M. Pikous—1111991
WJul 27 · 23:00M. Regner—312811113M. Pikous—111011972
WJul 22 · 02:30M. Regner—1111710113M. Pikous—77111282
LJul 11 · 07:30M. Regner—41112101M. Pikous—11814123
LJun 26 · 24:00M. Regner—61111172M. Pikous—116911113
M. Regner10
WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Regner1.73117913113D. Hofman2.00911111162WSep 4 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.204980M. Regner1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:28M. Regner2.2011128113M. Klement1.617101141WSep 3 · 08:30J. Tazler2.002570M. Regner1.731111113
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113
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