TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13064557
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Tazler
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211511711––––
Michal Regner
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 47 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Tazler at 54.0%
47 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 5–5 Michal Regner Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1691 vs Regner 1643
Tazler
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 80% vs Regner 40%
Tazler
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 80% vs Regner 50%
Tazler
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler +3 · Regner +1
Tazler
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 2.00 / Regner 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Regner)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13064557
Tazler2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 90 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back29% 30 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back17% 10 of 60
Regner1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 112 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it70% 83 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTazler5wins
AwayRegner5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTazler66.7%4 of 6
AwayRegner75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler6Regner4n = 10Tazler took 6 of 10
S2Tazler4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Tazler4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S4Tazler5Regner4n = 9Tazler took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTazlerRegnerT − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.039.2+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 705 vs 513 / 106454.8%48.2%386 / 705 vs 513 / 1064Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerTazler 2.00/Regner 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 06:30J. Tazler—11611113M. Regner—911891
LAug 14 · 01:30J. Tazler—11881152M. Regner—811117113
WJul 20 · 08:59J. Tazler—1311911113M. Regner—118111362
LJul 20 · 06:00J. Tazler—1161191M. Regner—71113113
LJul 16 · 01:00J. Tazler—91111111M. Regner—11413133
LJul 15 · 12:30J. Tazler—10980M. Regner—1211113
WJul 14 · 10:00J. Tazler—91111113M. Regner—115891
WJul 11 · 08:59J. Tazler—13311113M. Regner—1111591
LJul 11 · 08:00J. Tazler—9111041M. Regner—11912113
WJun 24 · 24:00J. Tazler—11912113M. Regner—4111041
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870WSep 6 · 03:30J. Tazler1.671112123K. Schopf2.10310100
M. Regner10
WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Regner1.73117913113D. Hofman2.00911111162WSep 4 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.204980M. Regner1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:28M. Regner2.2011128113M. Klement1.617101141
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