TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071032
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Regner
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1197119111311116
Denis Hofman
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Denis Hofman below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 99 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Michal Regner at 54.6%
99 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 53–27 Denis Hofman Denis Hofman has won 27 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:19What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-27 in 80
Regner
Correct
gap of 26 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1657 vs Hofman 1683
Hofman
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 80% vs Hofman 0%
Regner
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Hofman 20%
Regner
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +4 · Hofman -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Regner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hofman form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.73 / Hofman 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Regner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071032
Regner1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 113 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it71% 84 of 119
Hofman2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 112 of 239
Down 0–1, comes back27% 35 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner6wins
AwayHofman4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner75%6 of 8
AwayHofmann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner8Hofman2n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S2Regner4Hofman6n = 10Hofman took 6 of 10
S3Regner4Hofman6n = 10Hofman took 6 of 10
S4Regner6Hofman3n = 9Regner took 6 of 9
S5Regner2Hofman2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerHofmanR − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.340.4+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerHofmanBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 1065 vs 457 / 95048.3%48.1%514 / 1065 vs 457 / 950Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.73/Hofman 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 07:00M. Regner—117913113D. Hofman—911111162
WAug 26 · 12:00M. Regner—1161411113D. Hofman—91116582
LAug 21 · 18:00M. Regner—681291D. Hofman—111110113
LAug 9 · 02:58M. Regner—68111192D. Hofman—111168113
WAug 8 · 23:00M. Regner—1111113D. Hofman—9390
WAug 8 · 09:30M. Regner—11149143D. Hofman—91211121
WAug 8 · 06:00M. Regner—11118113D. Hofman—951161
LAug 7 · 07:00M. Regner—11118742D. Hofman—371111113
WJul 31 · 03:28M. Regner—111013113D. Hofman—6121181
LJul 31 · 01:00M. Regner—117491D. Hofman—81111113
M. Regner10
WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.204980M. Regner1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:28M. Regner2.2011128113M. Klement1.617101141WSep 3 · 08:30J. Tazler2.002570M. Regner1.731111113
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141LSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 17:33M. Pikous2.05111081182D. Hofman1.65412113113LSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881
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