TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077880
Played Sep 5Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1158115111171012
Karel Schopf
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeKarel Schopf to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Karel Schopf below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Karel Schopf at 63.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 8–20 Karel Schopf Michal Regner has won 8 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Schopf
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-20 in 28
Schopf
Correct
gap of 12 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1642 vs Schopf 1595
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Schopf 20%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 50% vs Schopf 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -3 · Schopf +1
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Schopf) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schopf form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.25 / Schopf 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Schopf)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077880
Regner2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 113 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 76
Schopf1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 49 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner2wins
AwaySchopf8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSchopf leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner28.6%2 of 7
AwaySchopf100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner7Schopf3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S2Regner3Schopf7n = 10Schopf took 7 of 10
S3Regner1Schopf9n = 10Schopf took 9 of 10
S4Regner2Schopf7n = 9Schopf took 7 of 9
S5Regner2Schopf2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerSchopfR − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.743.9−6.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerSchopfBasisWin rate · lifetime513 / 1065 vs 227 / 44948.2%50.6%513 / 1065 vs 227 / 449Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchopfRegner 2.25/Schopf 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Schopf · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Schopf won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner—118511102K. Schopf—511117123
LAug 4 · 11:30M. Regner—118551K. Schopf—61111113
LJul 22 · 03:28M. Regner—115891K. Schopf—71111113
LJul 22 · 01:00M. Regner—111171172K. Schopf—691113113
LJun 23 · 23:00M. Regner—7540K. Schopf—1111113
WJun 7 · 23:00M. Regner—111281113K. Schopf—710111172
LMay 11 · 22:00M. Regner—311651K. Schopf—11411113
LApr 23 · 22:30M. Regner—278991K. Schopf—251111113
WMar 9 · 01:00M. Regner—1113512113K. Schopf—715111062
LFeb 13 · 04:30M. Regner—691181K. Schopf—11118113
M. Regner10
WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Regner1.73117913113D. Hofman2.00911111162WSep 4 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.204980M. Regner1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:28M. Regner2.2011128113M. Klement1.617101141WSep 3 · 08:30J. Tazler2.002570M. Regner1.731111113
K. Schopf10
LSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 01:00K. Schopf2.7534100V. Vejvoda1.401111123LSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660LSep 6 · 22:30M. Sychra2.251111123K. Schopf1.5798100LSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:00R. Rose1.331111113K. Schopf3.258620LSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142WSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 03:30J. Tazler1.671112123K. Schopf2.10310100LSep 6 · 01:30K. Schopf1.5710690M. Sychra2.251211113
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