TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071020
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Regner
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811811711––
Michal Vondrak
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Michal Vondrak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Michal Vondrak at 55.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 7–13 Michal Vondrak Michal Regner has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:19What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Vondrak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Vondrak
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1690 vs Vondrak 1683
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 100% vs Vondrak 60%
Regner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 70% vs Vondrak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +5 · Vondrak +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vondrak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.10 / Vondrak 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Vondrak)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071020
Regner2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 114 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Vondrak1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 69 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it71% 45 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwayVondrak6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVondrak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner57.1%4 of 7
AwayVondrak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner7Vondrak3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S2Regner3Vondrak7n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10
S3Regner4Vondrak6n = 10Vondrak took 6 of 10
S4Regner4Vondrak4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerVondrakR − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.738.7−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerVondrakBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 1068 vs 318 / 65248.4%48.8%517 / 1068 vs 318 / 652Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakRegner 2.10/Vondrak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 06:00M. Regner—1312113M. Vondrak—111090
LJul 30 · 09:30M. Regner—117761M. Vondrak—61111113
LJul 30 · 06:00M. Regner—11871172M. Vondrak—811114113
LJul 15 · 13:29M. Regner—118951M. Vondrak—81111113
WJul 15 · 11:00M. Regner—11911113M. Vondrak—511971
WMay 13 · 13:30M. Regner—11811123M. Vondrak—6116101
LMay 13 · 10:30M. Regner—811871M. Vondrak—11811113
LApr 29 · 06:00M. Regner—5990M. Vondrak—1111113
WApr 28 · 09:28M. Regner—11812113M. Vondrak—8111071
LApr 28 · 07:00M. Regner—1619691M. Vondrak—181711113
M. Regner10
WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161WSep 4 · 07:00M. Regner1.73117913113D. Hofman2.00911111162WSep 4 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.204980M. Regner1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:28M. Regner2.2011128113M. Klement1.617101141WSep 3 · 08:30J. Tazler2.002570M. Regner1.731111113
M. Vondrak10
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161WSep 4 · 07:30M. Vondrak1.401111113J. Stolfa2.759790WSep 4 · 06:30D. Hofman1.7311980M. Vondrak2.001311113WSep 1 · 12:58V. Vejvoda1.80118941M. Vondrak1.9181111113LSep 1 · 12:00V. Vejvoda1.831112113M. Vondrak1.8381060LSep 1 · 11:00J. Zuzanek1.911011511113M. Vondrak1.8012911562WSep 1 · 10:30M. Vondrak1.501111127113J. Tazler2.5053141172WAug 28 · 09:00M. Vondrak1.80911117143V. Cermak1.91116611122LAug 28 · 08:00M. Vondrak1.80911981M. Sychra1.9111911113WAug 28 · 07:30V. Cermak2.20119981M. Vondrak1.6181111113
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