TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070726
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Vondrak
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117119––––
Jakub Stolfa
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Vondrak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vondrak above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Michal Vondrak at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vondrak 3–0 Jakub Stolfa Jakub Stolfa has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:11What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vondrak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Vondrak
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vondrak 1706 vs Stolfa 1610
Vondrak
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vondrak 60% vs Stolfa 40%
Vondrak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vondrak 60% vs Stolfa 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vondrak +2 · Stolfa -3
Stolfa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Vondrak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vondrak form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVondrak 1.40 / Stolfa 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Vondrak)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070726
Vondrak1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 72 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 47 of 65
Stolfa2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog56% won 60 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back39% 25 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVondrak3wins
AwayStolfa0wins
Vondrak leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVondrak100%3 of 3
AwayStolfan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vondrak3Stolfa0n = 3Vondrak took 3 of 3
S2Vondrak3Stolfa0n = 3Vondrak took 3 of 3
S3Vondrak2Stolfa1n = 3Vondrak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVondrakStolfaV − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match36.729.0+7.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVondrakStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 654 vs 178 / 34548.9%51.6%320 / 654 vs 178 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VondrakVondrak 1.40/Stolfa 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Vondrak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 4 · 07:30M. Vondrak—1111113J. Stolfa—9790
WJul 24 · 11:30M. Vondrak—11115113J. Stolfa—681161
WJul 1 · 10:30M. Vondrak—1113153J. Stolfa—711130
M. Vondrak10
WSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161WSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 06:30D. Hofman1.7311980M. Vondrak2.001311113WSep 1 · 12:58V. Vejvoda1.80118941M. Vondrak1.9181111113LSep 1 · 12:00V. Vejvoda1.831112113M. Vondrak1.8381060LSep 1 · 11:00J. Zuzanek1.911011511113M. Vondrak1.8012911562WSep 1 · 10:30M. Vondrak1.501111127113J. Tazler2.5053141172WAug 28 · 09:00M. Vondrak1.80911117143V. Cermak1.91116611122LAug 28 · 08:00M. Vondrak1.80911981M. Sychra1.9111911113WAug 28 · 07:30V. Cermak2.20119981M. Vondrak1.6181111113
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113
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