TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070725
Played Sep 4Finished
Simon Kadavy
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115611117911119
Jakub Stolfa
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSimon Kadavy above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Simon Kadavy 3–3 Jakub Stolfa Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Stolfa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1613 vs Stolfa 1610
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 20% vs Stolfa 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 50% vs Stolfa 30%
Kadavy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy -4 · Stolfa -1
Kadavy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Stolfa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 2.20 / Stolfa 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Stolfa)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13070725
Kadavy2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 44 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Stolfa1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 80 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it100% 34 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKadavy3wins
AwayStolfa3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy75%3 of 4
AwayStolfan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy4Stolfa2n = 6Kadavy took 4 of 6
S2Kadavy3Stolfa3n = 6split evenly
S3Kadavy2Stolfa4n = 6Stolfa took 4 of 6
S4Kadavy1Stolfa5n = 6Stolfa took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKadavyStolfaK − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match42.542.7−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 534 vs 181 / 35049.1%51.7%262 / 534 vs 181 / 350Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaKadavy 2.20/Stolfa 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 4 · 16:59S. Kadavy—111110113J. Stolfa—731281
WSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy—116119113J. Stolfa—51171192
LSep 1 · 20:58S. Kadavy—81814101J. Stolfa—111616123
LSep 1 · 20:00S. Kadavy—971171J. Stolfa—11118113
LAug 31 · 19:00S. Kadavy—119781J. Stolfa—81111113
WJul 1 · 11:30S. Kadavy—111166113J. Stolfa—98111172
S. Kadavy10
WSep 5 · 03:28S. Kadavy1.5711811113R. Krejci2.25611491WSep 5 · 02:30S. Kadavy1.801111113D. Kouble1.919180WSep 5 · 01:30T. Janata1.73138951S. Kadavy2.00111111113WSep 5 · 24:00S. Kadavy1.4471111113R. Krejci2.63118991WSep 4 · 23:00P. Pycha2.0057150S. Kadavy1.731111173WSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pikous1.251111113S. Kadavy3.759630LSep 4 · 14:30D. Hofman1.50111168113S. Kadavy2.5097111182LSep 1 · 20:58J. Stolfa1.73111616123S. Kadavy2.0081814101LSep 1 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.8011118113S. Kadavy1.91971171
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113WSep 1 · 20:58J. Stolfa1.73111616123S. Kadavy2.0081814101WSep 1 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.8011118113S. Kadavy1.91971171
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