TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071600
Played Sep 5Finished
Simon Kadavy
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119111118––––
Daniel Kouble
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Kadavy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Kadavy above · Daniel Kouble below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Simon Kadavy at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Simon Kadavy 4–4 Daniel Kouble Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1648 vs Kouble 1538
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 80% vs Kouble 0%
Kadavy
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 50% vs Kouble 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +4 · Kouble -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kadavy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kouble form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.80 / Kouble 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kadavy)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071600
Kadavy1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 36 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it71% 24 of 34
Kouble1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 22 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back29% 8 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKadavy4wins
AwayKouble4wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy33.3%1 of 3
AwayKouble40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy3Kouble5n = 8Kouble took 5 of 8
S2Kadavy5Kouble3n = 8Kadavy took 5 of 8
S3Kadavy5Kouble3n = 8Kadavy took 5 of 8
S4Kadavy3Kouble5n = 8Kouble took 5 of 8
S5Kadavy2Kouble2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKadavyKoubleKadavy − KoubleBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match42.642.8−0.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyKoubleBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 537 vs 102 / 21549.4%47.4%265 / 537 vs 102 / 215Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.80/Kouble 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJun 20 · 17:30S. Kadavy—11119113D. Kouble—581181
WJun 20 · 14:30S. Kadavy—613116113D. Kouble—111191172
LApr 13 · 02:30S. Kadavy—7101141D. Kouble—11127113
LMar 31 · 21:30S. Kadavy—811117102D. Kouble—119611123
WMar 31 · 18:00S. Kadavy—91111113D. Kouble—118261
WJan 27 · 04:30S. Kadavy—914113113D. Kouble—111251192
LJan 26 · 23:30S. Kadavy—125991D. Kouble—101111113
LJan 23 · 03:30S. Kadavy—11781572D. Kouble—7111113113
S. Kadavy10
WSep 5 · 03:28S. Kadavy1.5711811113R. Krejci2.25611491WSep 5 · 01:30T. Janata1.73138951S. Kadavy2.00111111113WSep 5 · 24:00S. Kadavy1.4471111113R. Krejci2.63118991WSep 4 · 23:00P. Pycha2.0057150S. Kadavy1.731111173WSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113LSep 4 · 16:30M. Pikous1.251111113S. Kadavy3.759630WSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:30D. Hofman1.50111168113S. Kadavy2.5097111182LSep 1 · 20:58J. Stolfa1.73111616123S. Kadavy2.0081814101LSep 1 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.8011118113S. Kadavy1.91971171
D. Kouble10
LSep 5 · 01:00R. Krejci1.6111114113D. Kouble2.20881151LSep 4 · 23:30D. Kouble2.201581181T. Janata1.6117119113LSep 4 · 22:00D. Kouble3.2510750P. Pycha1.331211113LSep 1 · 03:00T. Janata1.801211113D. Kouble1.9110540LSep 1 · 02:00R. Krejci1.731211113D. Kouble2.0010920WSep 1 · 24:30D. Kouble1.5391112113V. Postelt2.381161081LAug 31 · 23:00D. Kouble2.0011116772D. Tuma1.73981111113WAug 31 · 22:00T. Janata1.671191071D. Kouble2.1091112113WJul 5 · 03:00D. Kouble2.10112812133O. Kysely1.677111110112WJul 5 · 01:30D. Kouble2.00111119113O. Kysely1.7385111142
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