TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13047555
Played Aug 31Finished
Daniel Kouble
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119118611711711
Daniel Tuma
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:18 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tuma to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Kouble above · Daniel Tuma below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Daniel Tuma at 64.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Kouble 3–9 Daniel Tuma Daniel Kouble has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:18What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tuma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Tuma
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kouble 1586 vs Tuma 1540
Kouble
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kouble 60% vs Tuma 20%
Kouble
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kouble 60% vs Tuma 40%
Kouble
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kouble +3 · Tuma -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKouble 2.00 / Tuma 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Tuma)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13047555
Kouble2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 21 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back28% 7 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Tuma1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 144 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it93% 68 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it76% 109 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKouble3wins
AwayTuma7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKouble0%0 of 3
AwayTuma57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kouble3Tuma7n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S2Kouble6Tuma4n = 10Kouble took 6 of 10
S3Kouble6Tuma4n = 10Kouble took 6 of 10
S4Kouble2Tuma8n = 10Tuma took 8 of 10
S5Kouble2Tuma3n = 5Tuma took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubleTumaK − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.944.9−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubleTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 208 vs 769 / 147848.6%52%101 / 208 vs 769 / 1478Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaKouble 2.00/Tuma 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 5 · 24:30D. Kouble—7158101D. Tuma—111311123
LApr 25 · 07:30D. Kouble—126512112D. Tuma—10111110133
LApr 18 · 03:30D. Kouble—761191D. Tuma—11119113
LApr 18 · 01:00D. Kouble—111110972D. Tuma—281211113
WApr 14 · 22:30D. Kouble—91113113D. Tuma—1161171
WJan 27 · 17:30D. Kouble—611128113D. Tuma—118101162
LNov 4 · 23:00D. Kouble—711891D. Tuma—11811113
LOct 23 · 02:30D. Kouble—1071341D. Tuma—121111113
WOct 1 · 03:30D. Kouble—711119113D. Tuma—11861132
LOct 1 · 01:30D. Kouble—16911792D. Tuma—1411811113
D. Kouble10
LSep 5 · 02:30S. Kadavy1.801111113D. Kouble1.919180LSep 5 · 01:00R. Krejci1.6111114113D. Kouble2.20881151LSep 4 · 23:30D. Kouble2.201581181T. Janata1.6117119113LSep 4 · 22:00D. Kouble3.2510750P. Pycha1.331211113LSep 1 · 03:00T. Janata1.801211113D. Kouble1.9110540LSep 1 · 02:00R. Krejci1.731211113D. Kouble2.0010920WSep 1 · 24:30D. Kouble1.5391112113V. Postelt2.381161081WAug 31 · 22:00T. Janata1.671191071D. Kouble2.1091112113WJul 5 · 03:00D. Kouble2.10112812133O. Kysely1.677111110112WJul 5 · 01:30D. Kouble2.00111119113O. Kysely1.7385111142
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152
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