TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065143
Played Sep 3Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117117––––
Jakub Stolfa
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 11–17 Jakub Stolfa Daniel Tuma has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:32What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stolfa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-17 in 28
Stolfa
Wrong
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1630 vs Stolfa 1718
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 80% vs Stolfa 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 80% vs Stolfa 60%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma -1 · Stolfa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stolfa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.91 / Stolfa 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stolfa)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065143
Tuma1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 171 of 374
Down 0–1, comes back27% 54 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 106
Stolfa1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it80% 51 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma6wins
AwayStolfa4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTuma leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma71.4%5 of 7
AwayStolfa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma7Stolfa3n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S2Tuma6Stolfa4n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S3Tuma5Stolfa5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuma1Stolfa6n = 7Stolfa took 6 of 7
S5Tuma3Stolfa1n = 4Tuma took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaStolfaT − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.9+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime772 / 1476 vs 181 / 34652.3%52.3%772 / 1476 vs 181 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaTuma 1.91/Stolfa 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 21:30D. Tuma—114118123J. Stolfa—811911102
WAug 23 · 18:00D. Tuma—1111910113J. Stolfa—89111282
WAug 22 · 06:30D. Tuma—1111610113J. Stolfa—75111252
WAug 21 · 15:30D. Tuma—1111113J. Stolfa—8660
WAug 20 · 07:00D. Tuma—61111113J. Stolfa—117281
LAug 19 · 12:30D. Tuma—6950J. Stolfa—1111113
LAug 19 · 08:58D. Tuma—991181J. Stolfa—11114113
LAug 19 · 08:00D. Tuma—11127352J. Stolfa—7101111113
LAug 17 · 13:03D. Tuma—117651J. Stolfa—81111113
WAug 17 · 11:00D. Tuma—1111113J. Stolfa—7880
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:00D. Tuma1.831113113S. Kadavy1.8391180
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113
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