TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13051790
Played Sep 1Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114711116711115
Karel Kapras
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeKarel Kapras to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Karel Kapras below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 84 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Karel Kapras at 54.4%
84 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 3–5 Karel Kapras Daniel Tuma has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Kapras
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1619 vs Kapras 1567
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 100% vs Kapras 60%
Tuma
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 60% vs Kapras 40%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +5 · Kapras +1
Tuma
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Kapras) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 2.20 / Kapras 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kapras)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13051790
Tuma2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 168 of 372
Down 0–1, comes back27% 54 of 199
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 107
Kapras1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 40 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTuma3wins
AwayKapras5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKapras leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma50%3 of 6
AwayKaprasn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma6Kapras2n = 8Tuma took 6 of 8
S2Tuma4Kapras4n = 8split evenly
S3Tuma3Kapras5n = 8Kapras took 5 of 8
S4Tuma1Kapras4n = 5Kapras took 4 of 5
S5Tuma1Kapras2n = 3Kapras took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricTumaKaprasT − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match35.836.8−1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaKaprasBasisWin rate · lifetime774 / 1481 vs 174 / 34552.3%50.4%774 / 1481 vs 174 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaprasTuma 2.20/Kapras 1.61
Miss
What we said
55.3%
Kapras · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma—117117113K. Kapras—41161152
LAug 13 · 18:00D. Tuma—113691K. Kapras—71111113
WMay 1 · 15:00D. Tuma—1111113K. Kapras—4760
LNov 5 · 20:30D. Tuma—1111813102K. Kapras—961115123
LOct 29 · 21:00D. Tuma—11351162K. Kapras—911116113
LJun 9 · 21:02D. Tuma—11860K. Kapras—1311113
LJun 9 · 18:30D. Tuma—711661K. Kapras—11811113
WApr 10 · 20:00D. Tuma—1111113K. Kapras—7970
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 19:00D. Tuma1.831113113S. Kadavy1.8391180
K. Kapras10
LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113LAug 25 · 21:28J. Stolfa1.674131111113K. Kapras2.10111113842LAug 25 · 20:30K. Kapras1.91671181V. Cermak1.8011119113WAug 25 · 19:00K. Kapras1.801111113M. Sobisek1.916580
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