TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020622
Played Aug 26Finished
Karel Kapras
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411411––––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarel Kapras above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 50 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 59.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Karel Kapras 1–3 Vladimir Cermak Karel Kapras has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Cermak
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapras 1535 vs Cermak 1685
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapras 40% vs Cermak 20%
Kapras
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapras 40% vs Cermak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapras +1 · Cermak -3
Cermak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapras 2.25 / Cermak 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Cermak)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020622
Kapras2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 14 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back21% 6 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Cermak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 148 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it92% 75 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it80% 117 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKapras1wins
AwayCermak3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderCermak leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaprasn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayCermak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapras0Cermak4n = 4Cermak took 4 of 4
S2Kapras0Cermak4n = 4Cermak took 4 of 4
S3Kapras2Cermak2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricKaprasCermakK − CBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match31.537.2−5.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaprasCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 348 vs 544 / 105250.6%51.7%176 / 348 vs 544 / 1052Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakKapras 2.25/Cermak 1.57
Hit
What we said
61.7%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 25 · 20:30K. Kapras—671181V. Cermak—11119113
WOct 29 · 19:00K. Kapras—791111113V. Cermak—11119812
LJul 24 · 19:30K. Kapras—71080V. Cermak—1112113
LApr 27 · 16:30K. Kapras—4970V. Cermak—1111113
K. Kapras10
LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113LAug 25 · 21:28J. Stolfa1.674131111113K. Kapras2.10111113842LAug 25 · 20:30K. Kapras1.91671181V. Cermak1.8011119113WAug 25 · 19:00K. Kapras1.801111113M. Sobisek1.916580
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113WAug 25 · 20:30K. Kapras1.91671181V. Cermak1.8011119113
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