TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020992
Played Aug 26Finished
Karel Kapras
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012811––––
Martin Sobisek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeKarel Kapras to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarel Kapras above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Karel Kapras at 56.8%
59 points played in total.
H2H Karel Kapras 12–12 Martin Sobisek Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:28What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapras 1533 vs Sobisek 1674
Sobisek
Correct
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapras 20% vs Sobisek 40%
Sobisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapras 30% vs Sobisek 60%
Sobisek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapras -2 · Sobisek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kapras)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapras form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapras 1.53 / Sobisek 2.38
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kapras)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13020992
Kapras1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 43 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it72% 28 of 39
Sobisek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 134 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back24% 49 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapras6wins
AwaySobisek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKapras leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapras62.5%5 of 8
AwaySobisekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapras8Sobisek2n = 10Kapras took 8 of 10
S2Kapras5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S3Kapras5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Kapras5Sobisek2n = 7Kapras took 5 of 7
S5Kapras1Sobisek3n = 4Sobisek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaprasSobisekK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.9+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaprasSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 346 vs 558 / 117750.6%47.4%175 / 346 vs 558 / 1177Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaprasKapras 1.53/Sobisek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Kapras · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 18:30K. Kapras—1111113M. Sobisek—4490
WMay 26 · 20:30K. Kapras—11111113M. Sobisek—117791
WMay 1 · 16:30K. Kapras—1111133M. Sobisek—74110
WMar 16 · 20:30K. Kapras—12119113M. Sobisek—1091161
LMar 12 · 21:00K. Kapras—11281192M. Sobisek—711118113
WFeb 27 · 16:00K. Kapras—1191211113M. Sobisek—91114562
WJan 4 · 11:30K. Kapras—11128143M. Sobisek—81011121
LDec 31 · 14:05K. Kapras—11811742M. Sobisek—911911113
LDec 31 · 13:30K. Kapras—119116112M. Sobisek—811911133
LOct 27 · 22:00K. Kapras—8750M. Sobisek—1111113
K. Kapras10
LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 25 · 21:28J. Stolfa1.674131111113K. Kapras2.10111113842LAug 25 · 20:30K. Kapras1.91671181V. Cermak1.8011119113WAug 25 · 19:00K. Kapras1.801111113M. Sobisek1.916580
M. Sobisek10
LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890WSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123WSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 25 · 19:00K. Kapras1.801111113M. Sobisek1.916580
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