TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083550
Played Sep 7Finished
Marek Chlebecek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Martin Sobisek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:49 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMarek Chlebecek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Chlebecek above · Martin Sobisek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Marek Chlebecek at 54.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Marek Chlebecek 12–10 Martin Sobisek Martin Sobisek has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Sobisek beat Chlebecek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:49What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chlebecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-10 in 22
Chlebecek
Correct
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlebecek 1561 vs Sobisek 1570
Sobisek
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlebecek 40% vs Sobisek 80%
Sobisek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlebecek 60% vs Sobisek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlebecek -2 · Sobisek +3
Sobisek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chlebecek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlebecek 1.73 / Sobisek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chlebecek)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083550
Chlebecek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 34 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it71% 27 of 38
Sobisek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 138 of 359
Down 0–1, comes back25% 51 of 206
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlebecek4wins
AwaySobisek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlebecek60%3 of 5
AwaySobisek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlebecek5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S2Chlebecek5Sobisek5n = 10split evenly
S3Chlebecek2Sobisek8n = 10Sobisek took 8 of 10
S4Chlebecek6Sobisek2n = 8Chlebecek took 6 of 8
S5Chlebecek2Sobisek4n = 6Sobisek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlebecekSobisekC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.942.4+0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlebecekSobisekBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 230 vs 547 / 117347.4%46.6%109 / 230 vs 547 / 1173Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlebecekChlebecek 1.73/Sobisek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chlebecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chlebecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:29M. Chlebecek—109111172M. Sobisek—121196113
WSep 6 · 19:30M. Chlebecek—11117123M. Sobisek—5811101
WSep 1 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—10111211113M. Sobisek—12614732
LAug 30 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—38130M. Sobisek—1111153
WAug 24 · 24:00M. Chlebecek—11115113M. Sobisek—381141
LAug 23 · 18:30M. Chlebecek—1114912112M. Sobisek—8161110133
WAug 8 · 03:30M. Chlebecek—119114113M. Sobisek—91171182
LAug 8 · 24:00M. Chlebecek—1111111092M. Sobisek—671312113
LJul 24 · 24:00M. Chlebecek—711811102M. Sobisek—118118123
LJul 19 · 23:30M. Chlebecek—6780M. Sobisek—1111113
M. Chlebecek10
WSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101WSep 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5381111113M. Volf2.38114681WSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113LSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670LSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123LSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113WSep 2 · 03:30M. Regner1.91911681M. Chlebecek1.8011511113LSep 2 · 02:00M. Chlebecek1.838680J. Hradecky1.831111113
M. Sobisek10
LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113WSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123WSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:30J. Hradecky1.809411131M. Sobisek1.9111116153
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