TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081784
Played Sep 6Finished
Marek Chlebecek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91111616141012117
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMarek Chlebecek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Chlebecek above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 16-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 107 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Marek Chlebecek at 56.2%
107 points played in total.
H2H Marek Chlebecek 3–5 Vladimir Cermak Marek Chlebecek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Cermak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlebecek 1553 vs Cermak 1574
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlebecek 60% vs Cermak 40%
Chlebecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlebecek 50% vs Cermak 20%
Chlebecek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlebecek +1 · Cermak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlebecek 2.20 / Cermak 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Chlebecek)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081784
Chlebecek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Cermak1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 151 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it79% 119 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeChlebecek3wins
AwayCermak5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderCermak leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlebecekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCermak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlebecek2Cermak6n = 8Cermak took 6 of 8
S2Chlebecek3Cermak5n = 8Cermak took 5 of 8
S3Chlebecek3Cermak5n = 8Cermak took 5 of 8
S4Chlebecek2Cermak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricChlebecekCermakChlebecek − CermakBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match31.135.4−4.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlebecekCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 227 vs 540 / 105347.6%51.3%108 / 227 vs 540 / 1053Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakChlebecek 2.20/Cermak 1.61
Miss
What we said
55.3%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chlebecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 23 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—125971V. Cermak—101111113
LJul 20 · 02:30M. Chlebecek—6131181V. Cermak—111113113
WJul 11 · 01:30M. Chlebecek—1111113V. Cermak—3940
WJun 16 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—71111113V. Cermak—113681
LJun 8 · 03:03M. Chlebecek—87130V. Cermak—1111153
WJun 7 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—921111113V. Cermak—11116992
LJun 7 · 20:00M. Chlebecek—2490V. Cermak—1111113
LFeb 9 · 12:30M. Chlebecek—44100V. Cermak—1111123
M. Chlebecek10
WSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101WSep 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5381111113M. Volf2.38114681WSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890LSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670LSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123LSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113WSep 2 · 03:30M. Regner1.91911681M. Chlebecek1.8011511113LSep 2 · 02:00M. Chlebecek1.838680J. Hradecky1.831111113
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192LAug 28 · 12:30J. Hradecky1.5011611133V. Cermak2.507118111
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