TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083109
Played Sep 7Finished
Richard Krejci
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911811––––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Krejci to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRichard Krejci above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 59 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Richard Krejci at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Richard Krejci 12–9 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:49What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krejci
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Krejci
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejci 1631 vs Cermak 1563
Krejci
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejci 80% vs Cermak 60%
Krejci
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejci 60% vs Cermak 40%
Krejci
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejci +4 · Cermak +1
Krejci
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krejci)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejci form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejci 1.80 / Cermak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krejci)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083109
Krejci1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 53 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it89% 39 of 44
Cermak1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 86 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrejci6wins
AwayCermak4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrejci leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejci85.7%6 of 7
AwayCermak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejci7Cermak3n = 10Krejci took 7 of 10
S2Krejci4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S3Krejci7Cermak3n = 10Krejci took 7 of 10
S4Krejci2Cermak5n = 7Cermak took 5 of 7
S5Krejci2Cermak1n = 3Krejci took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrejciCermakK − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.2+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejciCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 345 vs 542 / 105753%51.3%183 / 345 vs 542 / 1057Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrejciKrejci 1.80/Cermak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krejci · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 19 · 23:00R. Krejci—1110119123V. Cermak—912311102
LJun 1 · 22:30R. Krejci—2570V. Cermak—1111113
WMay 13 · 01:00R. Krejci—1111113V. Cermak—9550
LApr 24 · 01:00R. Krejci—1175121V. Cermak—51111143
LJan 22 · 03:00R. Krejci—71411862V. Cermak—1112811113
LJan 17 · 01:30R. Krejci—991191V. Cermak—11119113
WJan 15 · 02:30R. Krejci—1111113V. Cermak—5840
WDec 5 · 02:30R. Krejci—12711113V. Cermak—1011771
WNov 26 · 24:30R. Krejci—111195113V. Cermak—79111172
WNov 24 · 04:00R. Krejci—11911183V. Cermak—2113161
R. Krejci10
WSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480LSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051WSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670WSep 6 · 22:00M. Volf1.5771260R. Krejci2.251114113WSep 6 · 20:59T. Janata2.0011750R. Krejci1.731311113WSep 6 · 20:30R. Krejci1.807111011113T. Janata1.9111812682LSep 6 · 19:00R. Krejci2.007680M. Volf1.731111113LSep 6 · 18:00M. Vizek1.5061111113R. Krejci2.50118861LSep 5 · 03:28S. Kadavy1.5711811113R. Krejci2.25611491WSep 5 · 02:00R. Krejci2.501211113P. Pycha1.5010350
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192LAug 28 · 12:30J. Hradecky1.5011611133V. Cermak2.507118111
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