TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081770
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210911911119911
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 3–7 Vladimir Cermak Jakub Stolfa has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:08What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Cermak
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1639 vs Cermak 1548
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 40% vs Cermak 20%
Stolfa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 30% vs Cermak 10%
Stolfa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa +1 · Cermak -3
Cermak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 2.25 / Cermak 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Cermak)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081770
Stolfa2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog56% won 60 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back39% 25 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Cermak1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 151 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it79% 119 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStolfa3wins
AwayCermak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStolfa66.7%2 of 3
AwayCermak85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa3Cermak7n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S2Stolfa2Cermak8n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S3Stolfa2Cermak8n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S4Stolfa4Cermak1n = 5Stolfa took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricStolfaCermakS − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.936.9−7.0per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 342 vs 539 / 105252.1%51.2%178 / 342 vs 539 / 1052Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakStolfa 2.25/Cermak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 19:30J. Stolfa—13511113V. Cermak—1111291
LAug 21 · 11:00J. Stolfa—86130V. Cermak—1111153
LAug 8 · 16:00J. Stolfa—6380V. Cermak—1111103
WApr 9 · 07:30J. Stolfa—101111113V. Cermak—125971
LJan 27 · 13:57J. Stolfa—6660V. Cermak—1111113
LJan 27 · 12:30J. Stolfa—7530V. Cermak—1111113
LJul 25 · 11:30J. Stolfa—71131142V. Cermak—118119113
LJul 17 · 09:08J. Stolfa—65100V. Cermak—1111123
LJul 17 · 06:00J. Stolfa—1185101V. Cermak—51111123
WJul 8 · 19:00J. Stolfa—119611113V. Cermak—91111952
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113LSep 4 · 07:30M. Vondrak1.401111113J. Stolfa2.759790
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192LAug 28 · 12:30J. Hradecky1.5011611133V. Cermak2.507118111
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