TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070728
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Stolfa
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119118118––
Denis Hofman
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 69.6% is still 69.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
69.6%
69.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Denis Hofman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 69.6%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Stolfa 2–1 Denis Hofman Denis Hofman has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:08What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hofman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stolfa 1610 vs Hofman 1636
Hofman
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stolfa 20% vs Hofman 60%
Hofman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stolfa 30% vs Hofman 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stolfa -2 · Hofman +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Hofman) · live re-read · sealed at 30% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStolfa 2.50 / Hofman 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Hofman)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070728
Stolfa2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog57% won 58 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back39% 23 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Hofman1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 76 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it65% 47 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStolfa2wins
AwayHofman1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderStolfa leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stolfa1Hofman2n = 3Hofman took 2 of 3
S2Stolfa1Hofman2n = 3Hofman took 2 of 3
S3Stolfa2Hofman1n = 3Stolfa took 2 of 3
S4Stolfa3Hofman0n = 3Stolfa took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStolfaHofmanS − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match48.344.7+3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStolfaHofmanBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 350 vs 452 / 94251.7%48%181 / 350 vs 452 / 942Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HofmanStolfa 2.50/Hofman 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Hofman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa—81111113D. Hofman—119881
WSep 4 · 08:58J. Stolfa—1091111113D. Hofman—12115992
LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa—131091192D. Hofman—1112117113
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113LSep 4 · 07:30M. Vondrak1.401111113J. Stolfa2.759790
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141LSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781LSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113WSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113
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