TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13078126
Played Sep 5Finished
Denis Hofman
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121167111191012
Richard Wagner
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Hofman above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Richard Wagner at 54.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Denis Hofman 11–9 Richard Wagner Richard Wagner has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:48What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Hofman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hofman 1701 vs Wagner 1667
Hofman
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hofman 80% vs Wagner 40%
Hofman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hofman 70% vs Wagner 50%
Hofman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hofman +4 · Wagner +1
Hofman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHofman 2.10 / Wagner 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Wagner)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13078126
Hofman2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 111 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back27% 35 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back13% 8 of 62
Wagner1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHofman6wins
AwayWagner4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHofman leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHofman85.7%6 of 7
AwayWagner100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hofman7Wagner3n = 10Hofman took 7 of 10
S2Hofman5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S3Hofman4Wagner6n = 10Wagner took 6 of 10
S4Hofman2Wagner4n = 6Wagner took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHofmanWagnerH − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.536.0−0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHofmanWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime456 / 947 vs 93 / 17948.2%52%456 / 947 vs 93 / 179Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerHofman 2.10/Wagner 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 01:30D. Hofman—1281251R. Wagner—101114113
WAug 23 · 01:30D. Hofman—111139113R. Wagner—96111192
LAug 22 · 21:28D. Hofman—9730R. Wagner—1111113
WAug 22 · 20:00D. Hofman—1114113R. Wagner—61260
WAug 12 · 16:58D. Hofman—119114113R. Wagner—71161162
WAug 12 · 15:00D. Hofman—11117113R. Wagner—661171
LAug 12 · 12:58D. Hofman—14830R. Wagner—1611113
LAug 12 · 10:30D. Hofman—671451R. Wagner—111112113
WAug 10 · 11:00D. Hofman—1111153R. Wagner—88130
WAug 10 · 07:00D. Hofman—11115113R. Wagner—561161
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141LSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 17:33M. Pikous2.05111081182D. Hofman1.65412113113LSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881WSep 4 · 15:00M. Pikous2.00611121162D. Hofman1.73115148113
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151WSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny2.2061151192R. Wagner1.61118117113
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