TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071035
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Saleny
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118511117911
Richard Wagner
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Saleny at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 1–4 Richard Wagner Petr Saleny has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:17What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Wagner
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1711 vs Wagner 1738
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 80% vs Wagner 40%
Saleny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 70% vs Wagner 40%
Saleny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny -1 · Wagner -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 2.20 / Wagner 1.61
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Wagner)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071035
Saleny2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 31 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back16% 7 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Wagner1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 57 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 31 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSaleny1wins
AwayWagner4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderWagner leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaleny33.3%1 of 3
AwayWagnern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny3Wagner2n = 5Saleny took 3 of 5
S2Saleny2Wagner3n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S3Saleny2Wagner3n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S4Saleny2Wagner3n = 5Wagner took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSalenyWagnerS − WBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.043.8−5.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenyWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 410 vs 90 / 17250.5%52.3%207 / 410 vs 90 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerSaleny 2.20/Wagner 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny—61151192R. Wagner—118117113
WSep 4 · 06:30P. Saleny—111211113R. Wagner—914691
LAug 25 · 13:30P. Saleny—12611952R. Wagner—1011911113
LAug 25 · 10:00P. Saleny—119981R. Wagner—71111113
LAug 25 · 06:30P. Saleny—511341R. Wagner—11811113
P. Saleny10
LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102WSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:30P. Saleny2.00125781M. Klement1.73101111113LSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.5711127113P. Saleny2.255101151LSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452WSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
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