TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077715
Played Sep 5Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121181181210––
Richard Wagner
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched — 69.7% is still 69.7%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
69.7%
69.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Richard Wagner at 69.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 4–6 Richard Wagner Marcel Pikous has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Wagner
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1586 vs Wagner 1748
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 40% vs Wagner 60%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 20% vs Wagner 60%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous -2 · Wagner +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 2.20 / Wagner 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Wagner)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077715
Pikous2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 40 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back29% 16 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Wagner1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 46 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous4wins
AwayWagner6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous80%4 of 5
AwayWagner100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S2Pikous5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S3Pikous5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S4Pikous1Wagner3n = 4Wagner took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousWagnerP − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.334.5−1.2per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 689 vs 92 / 17552.7%52.6%363 / 689 vs 92 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerPikous 2.20/Wagner 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 22:30M. Pikous—71090R. Wagner—1112113
LAug 8 · 21:30M. Pikous—117731R. Wagner—31111113
LAug 8 · 19:00M. Pikous—712981R. Wagner—111011113
LAug 5 · 24:30M. Pikous—51111962R. Wagner—119711113
WAug 1 · 21:29M. Pikous—1112123R. Wagner—710100
WAug 1 · 20:00M. Pikous—12911113R. Wagner—1011781
LJul 22 · 17:29M. Pikous—15650R. Wagner—1711113
WJul 22 · 15:30M. Pikous—1111133R. Wagner—59110
WJul 19 · 19:30M. Pikous—1111113R. Wagner—5680
LJul 12 · 24:00M. Pikous—101270R. Wagner—1214113
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151WSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny2.2061151192R. Wagner1.61118117113
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