TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082930
Played Sep 6Finished
Jakub Tazler
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14129115111191214
Marcel Pikous
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Marcel Pikous below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 108 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Jakub Tazler at 54.0%
108 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 4–2 Marcel Pikous Marcel Pikous has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:11What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pikous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Tazler
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1645 vs Pikous 1658
Pikous
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 80% vs Pikous 20%
Tazler
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 60% vs Pikous 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler +1 · Pikous +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Pikous) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 2.25 / Pikous 1.57
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Tazler)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082930
Tazler2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 95 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back29% 31 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back16% 10 of 62
Pikous1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 114 of 193
Up 2–0, closes it89% 55 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it76% 79 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTazler4wins
AwayPikous2wins
3 of 6 to a deciderTazler leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTazler66.7%2 of 3
AwayPikous33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler3Pikous3n = 6split evenly
S2Tazler3Pikous3n = 6split evenly
S3Tazler4Pikous2n = 6Tazler took 4 of 6
S4Tazler3Pikous1n = 4Tazler took 3 of 4
S5Tazler2Pikous1n = 3Tazler took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricTazlerPikousT − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.339.5+2.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerPikousBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 711 vs 367 / 69754.9%52.7%390 / 711 vs 367 / 697Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PikousTazler 2.25/Pikous 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Pikous · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler—149511122M. Pikous—1211119143
WSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler—9111011143M. Pikous—118129122
WAug 21 · 01:00J. Tazler—591111113M. Pikous—11117842
LJul 11 · 06:30J. Tazler—961281M. Pikous—111110113
WJun 23 · 22:30J. Tazler—1111113M. Pikous—8590
WJun 23 · 21:30J. Tazler—1111113M. Pikous—8590
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870WSep 6 · 03:30J. Tazler1.671112123K. Schopf2.10310100WSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113
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