TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082716
Played Sep 6Finished
Marcel Pikous
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012118114––
Radek Rose
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcel Pikous to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Pikous above · Radek Rose below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 75 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Marcel Pikous at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Pikous 8–12 Radek Rose Marcel Pikous has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:11What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rose
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Rose
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pikous 1600 vs Rose 1658
Rose
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pikous 20% vs Rose 60%
Rose
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pikous 40% vs Rose 60%
Rose
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pikous -4 · Rose +1
Pikous
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Rose) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pikous form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPikous 2.10 / Rose 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Rose)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082716
Pikous2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 42 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back30% 17 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 27
Rose1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePikous6wins
AwayRose4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPikous leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePikous100%5 of 5
AwayRose80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pikous5Rose5n = 10split evenly
S2Pikous6Rose4n = 10Pikous took 6 of 10
S3Pikous5Rose5n = 10split evenly
S4Pikous3Rose2n = 5Pikous took 3 of 5
S5Pikous2Rose1n = 3Pikous took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPikousRoseP − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.035.1+0.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPikousRoseBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 694 vs 157 / 34052.6%46.2%365 / 694 vs 157 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RosePikous 2.10/Rose 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Rose · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pikous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 20:58M. Pikous—1111113R. Rose—7550
WAug 14 · 18:00M. Pikous—51111113R. Rose—115681
LMay 4 · 19:30M. Pikous—9111191R. Rose—11813113
WApr 28 · 18:00M. Pikous—119148123R. Rose—9111211102
LJan 26 · 20:30M. Pikous—5750R. Rose—1111113
LJan 12 · 20:00M. Pikous—73110R. Rose—1111133
WDec 29 · 15:00M. Pikous—1112113R. Rose—91080
WDec 26 · 20:00M. Pikous—1112113R. Rose—51030
WDec 23 · 18:00M. Pikous—119211113R. Rose—91111862
LDec 23 · 15:30M. Pikous—711111152R. Rose—116139113
M. Pikous10
LSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143LSep 6 · 14:30K. Schopf2.101111113M. Pikous1.677890LSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113LSep 6 · 02:00J. Tazler2.759111011143M. Pikous1.40118129122LSep 6 · 24:30M. Pikous1.6163141162K. Schopf2.201111129113WSep 5 · 23:00M. Pikous1.671111113M. Sychra2.107680WSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113WSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113
R. Rose10
WSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:00R. Rose1.331111113K. Schopf3.258620WSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870LSep 3 · 21:28M. Sychra1.44111496133R. Rose2.639121111112LSep 3 · 20:00R. Rose3.2568111392M. Sychra1.331111911113WSep 3 · 19:30V. Kolar1.831011651R. Rose1.8312711113WSep 3 · 18:00R. Rose1.67159711113J. Louda2.10131111362WAug 27 · 20:58R. Rose1.5341111133M. Klement2.381176111WAug 27 · 20:30R. Urbaniec2.00912331R. Rose1.73111011113WAug 27 · 19:30R. Rose1.61641411123M. Klement2.201111124102
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