TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071406
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Saleny
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811117611118117
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Petr Saleny at 64.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 13–5 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Saleny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Saleny
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1719 vs Kasnik 1622
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 60% vs Kasnik 40%
Saleny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 60% vs Kasnik 30%
Saleny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny -2 · Kasnik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Saleny) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saleny form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 1.40 / Kasnik 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Saleny)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071406
Saleny1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 62 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Kasnik2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 122 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSaleny7wins
AwayKasnik3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSaleny leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaleny100%5 of 5
AwayKasnik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Saleny7Kasnik3n = 10Saleny took 7 of 10
S3Saleny6Kasnik4n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S4Saleny4Kasnik1n = 5Saleny took 4 of 5
S5Saleny3Kasnik2n = 5Saleny took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalenyKasnikS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.636.7+4.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenyKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 411 vs 476 / 100050.6%47.6%208 / 411 vs 476 / 1000Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalenySaleny 1.40/Kasnik 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny—811611113S. Kasnik—11711872
WSep 4 · 08:00P. Saleny—5121111113S. Kasnik—111051322
WAug 25 · 12:30P. Saleny—115611113S. Kasnik—71111972
LAug 25 · 08:00P. Saleny—9111419152S. Kasnik—11131217173
WJul 1 · 12:30P. Saleny—1111113S. Kasnik—6930
WJul 1 · 06:30P. Saleny—1111113S. Kasnik—8970
LMay 14 · 16:00P. Saleny—101170S. Kasnik—1213113
WMay 11 · 14:30P. Saleny—1114113S. Kasnik—71230
WApr 23 · 21:30P. Saleny—1111113S. Kasnik—5860
LApr 23 · 18:30P. Saleny—311101192S. Kasnik—117127113
P. Saleny10
LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102WSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:30P. Saleny2.00125781M. Klement1.73101111113LSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.5711127113P. Saleny2.255101151LSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny2.2061151192R. Wagner1.61118117113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181WSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner1.571311510102S. Kasnik2.251191112123LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.25117981R. Wagner1.5781111113LSep 4 · 08:00S. Kasnik2.75111051322P. Saleny1.405121111113LSep 4 · 07:30R. Wagner1.6111711113S. Kasnik2.20811751
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