TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071039
Played Sep 4Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11510125111311211
Petr Saleny
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:18 and never touched — 64.6% is still 64.6%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
64.6%
64.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Petr Saleny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 91 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Petr Saleny at 64.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 5–11 Petr Saleny Sebastian Kasnik has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:18What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Saleny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Saleny
Correct
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1618 vs Saleny 1714
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 20% vs Saleny 80%
Saleny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 20% vs Saleny 60%
Saleny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik -1 · Saleny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Saleny) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.75 / Saleny 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Saleny)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071039
Kasnik2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 122 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 91
Saleny1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 62 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it85% 46 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik3wins
AwaySaleny7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSaleny leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik75%3 of 4
AwaySaleny100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik4Saleny6n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S2Kasnik3Saleny7n = 10Saleny took 7 of 10
S3Kasnik3Saleny7n = 10Saleny took 7 of 10
S4Kasnik0Saleny4n = 4Saleny took 4 of 4
S5Kasnik2Saleny1n = 3Kasnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikSalenyK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.638.8−6.2per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikSalenyBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 995 vs 205 / 40647.6%50.5%474 / 995 vs 205 / 406Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalenyKasnik 2.75/Saleny 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 12:30S. Kasnik—71111972P. Saleny—115611113
WAug 25 · 08:00S. Kasnik—11131217173P. Saleny—9111419152
LJul 1 · 12:30S. Kasnik—6930P. Saleny—1111113
LJul 1 · 06:30S. Kasnik—8970P. Saleny—1111113
WMay 14 · 16:00S. Kasnik—1213113P. Saleny—101170
LMay 11 · 14:30S. Kasnik—71230P. Saleny—1114113
LApr 23 · 21:30S. Kasnik—5860P. Saleny—1111113
WApr 23 · 18:30S. Kasnik—117127113P. Saleny—311101192
LApr 23 · 14:30S. Kasnik—119261P. Saleny—31111113
LApr 13 · 21:30S. Kasnik—6190P. Saleny—1111113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113LSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181WSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner1.571311510102S. Kasnik2.251191112123LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.25117981R. Wagner1.5781111113LSep 4 · 07:30R. Wagner1.6111711113S. Kasnik2.20811751
P. Saleny10
LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102WSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:30P. Saleny2.00125781M. Klement1.73101111113LSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.5711127113P. Saleny2.255101151LSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452WSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872
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