TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071037
Played Sep 4Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
131111951110121012
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 104 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Richard Wagner at 58.9%
104 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 8–4 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:17What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Wagner
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1748 vs Kasnik 1603
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Kasnik 20%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Kasnik 20%
Wagner
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +1 · Kasnik -3
Kasnik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.57 / Kasnik 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Wagner)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071037
Wagner1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite55% won 57 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 31 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Kasnik2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 122 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back19% 29 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner7wins
AwayKasnik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner80%4 of 5
AwayKasnik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Wagner6Kasnik4n = 10Wagner took 6 of 10
S3Wagner6Kasnik4n = 10Wagner took 6 of 10
S4Wagner7Kasnik2n = 9Wagner took 7 of 9
S5Wagner2Kasnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerKasnikW − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.439.4+4.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 170 vs 474 / 99752.4%47.5%89 / 170 vs 474 / 997Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.57/Kasnik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 08:58R. Wagner—81111113S. Kasnik—117981
WSep 4 · 07:30R. Wagner—11711113S. Kasnik—811751
LAug 28 · 02:30R. Wagner—41691152S. Kasnik—1114119113
WAug 25 · 11:30R. Wagner—11119113S. Kasnik—791191
WAug 25 · 09:30R. Wagner—9111311113S. Kasnik—11915962
LAug 25 · 07:30R. Wagner—10121191S. Kasnik—12146113
WAug 18 · 16:58R. Wagner—11116113S. Kasnik—981161
WAug 18 · 14:00R. Wagner—1111113S. Kasnik—7930
WAug 10 · 13:00R. Wagner—1391111113S. Kasnik—15116942
LAug 10 · 10:00R. Wagner—11411882S. Kasnik—611611113
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113LSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.25117981R. Wagner1.5781111113LSep 4 · 08:00S. Kasnik2.75111051322P. Saleny1.405121111113LSep 4 · 07:30R. Wagner1.6111711113S. Kasnik2.20811751
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