TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071618
Played Sep 4Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711117115––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Richard Wagner at 58.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 8–5 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Wagner
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1708 vs Kasnik 1616
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 40% vs Kasnik 20%
Wagner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Kasnik 20%
Wagner
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Kasnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.61 / Kasnik 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Wagner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071618
Wagner1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Kasnik2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 123 of 310
Down 0–1, comes back19% 30 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner7wins
AwayKasnik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner80%4 of 5
AwayKasnik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S2Wagner7Kasnik3n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S3Wagner5Kasnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Wagner7Kasnik2n = 9Wagner took 7 of 9
S5Wagner2Kasnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerKasnikW − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.140.4+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 182 vs 477 / 100552.8%47.5%96 / 182 vs 477 / 1005Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.61/Kasnik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner—1311510102S. Kasnik—1191112123
WSep 4 · 08:58R. Wagner—81111113S. Kasnik—117981
WSep 4 · 07:30R. Wagner—11711113S. Kasnik—811751
LAug 28 · 02:30R. Wagner—41691152S. Kasnik—1114119113
WAug 25 · 11:30R. Wagner—11119113S. Kasnik—791191
WAug 25 · 09:30R. Wagner—9111311113S. Kasnik—11915962
LAug 25 · 07:30R. Wagner—10121191S. Kasnik—12146113
WAug 18 · 16:58R. Wagner—11116113S. Kasnik—981161
WAug 18 · 14:00R. Wagner—1111113S. Kasnik—7930
WAug 10 · 13:00R. Wagner—1391111113S. Kasnik—15116942
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113LSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181WSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner1.571311510102S. Kasnik2.251191112123LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.25117981R. Wagner1.5781111113LSep 4 · 08:00S. Kasnik2.75111051322P. Saleny1.405121111113
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