TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081783
Played Sep 6Finished
Mark Robin Wagner
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012101211712101210
Petr Saleny
Away
1.88
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:10 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMark Robin Wagner above · Petr Saleny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 106 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 55.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Mark Robin Wagner 1–1 Petr Saleny Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:10What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (52%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1728 vs Saleny 1689
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 20% vs Saleny 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Saleny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -2 · Saleny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saleny form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.73 / Saleny 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wagner)+1.9pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081783
Wagner1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Saleny1.88
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 28 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeWagner1wins
AwaySaleny1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricWagnerSalenyW − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.537.5+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerSalenyBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 147 vs 209 / 41655.8%50.2%82 / 147 vs 209 / 416Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.73/Saleny 1.88
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner—1381591P. Saleny—111117113
WSep 6 · 07:00M. Wagner—1112113P. Saleny—81070
M. Wagner10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110WSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:30M. Wagner1.5375111192M. Klement2.38111189113LSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880WSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123WSep 4 · 01:00M. Sychra2.00711661M. Wagner1.7311811113
P. Saleny10
LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113WSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:30P. Saleny2.00125781M. Klement1.73101111113LSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.5711127113P. Saleny2.255101151LSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452WSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872LSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny2.2061151192R. Wagner1.61118117113
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