TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081769
Played Sep 6Finished
Jiri Louda
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10128111513811––
Mark Robin Wagner
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:10 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Louda above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 88 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 66.2%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Louda 2–3 Mark Robin Wagner Jiri Louda has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Louda 1614 vs Wagner 1748
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Louda 20% vs Wagner 40%
Wagner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Louda 20% vs Wagner 50%
Wagner
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Louda -2 · Wagner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLouda 2.10 / Wagner 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Wagner)+3.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081769
Louda2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 64 of 167
Down 0–1, comes back14% 12 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 50
Wagner1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeLouda2wins
AwayWagner3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderWagner leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLouda66.7%2 of 3
AwayWagnern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Louda3Wagner2n = 5Louda took 3 of 5
S2Louda1Wagner4n = 5Wagner took 4 of 5
S3Louda3Wagner2n = 5Louda took 3 of 5
S4Louda1Wagner4n = 5Wagner took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricLoudaWagnerL − WBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.241.6−0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLoudaWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime609 / 1202 vs 84 / 14950.7%56.4%609 / 1202 vs 84 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerLouda 2.10/Wagner 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda—1081581M. Wagner—121113113
LAug 30 · 14:00J. Louda—118871M. Wagner—21111113
LAug 23 · 17:30J. Louda—6118121M. Wagner—11711143
WAug 23 · 14:30J. Louda—117116133M. Wagner—711911112
WJul 27 · 22:30J. Louda—111111133M. Wagner—8132111
J. Louda10
WSep 7 · 03:30M. Sychra2.40371191J. Louda1.5011117113WSep 7 · 02:30J. Louda1.731412113V. Vejvoda2.00121080LSep 7 · 01:30M. Sychra2.5012111112113J. Louda1.50149131062WSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660WSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113WSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040WSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 10:00A. Brazda2.6391111143J. Louda1.441198121LSep 4 · 09:30P. Saleny1.83111011113J. Louda1.83712481WSep 4 · 08:30J. Louda1.91131011123R. Wagner1.8011129101
M. Wagner10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110WSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny2.2081070M. Wagner1.611112113LSep 6 · 06:30M. Wagner1.5375111192M. Klement2.38111189113LSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880WSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123WSep 4 · 01:00M. Sychra2.00711661M. Wagner1.7311811113
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