TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081763
Played Sep 6Finished
Adam Brazda
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111191181412––
Jiri Louda
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Brazda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Brazda above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 85 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Adam Brazda at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adam Brazda 12–34 Jiri Louda Adam Brazda has won 12 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Louda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-34 in 46
Louda
Wrong
gap of 22 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brazda 1738 vs Louda 1614
Brazda
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brazda 60% vs Louda 20%
Brazda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brazda 80% vs Louda 20%
Brazda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brazda +1 · Louda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Louda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrazda 2.63 / Louda 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Louda)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13081763
Brazda2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 29 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Louda1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 196 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it87% 88 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it73% 139 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrazda2wins
AwayLouda8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLouda leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrazda33.3%1 of 3
AwayLouda85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brazda3Louda7n = 10Louda took 7 of 10
S2Brazda4Louda6n = 10Louda took 6 of 10
S3Brazda1Louda9n = 10Louda took 9 of 10
S4Brazda3Louda3n = 6split evenly
S5Brazda1Louda2n = 3Louda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrazdaLoudaB − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.640.1−8.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrazdaLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 399 vs 609 / 120047.1%50.8%188 / 399 vs 609 / 1200Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaBrazda 2.63/Louda 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Brazda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 15:00A. Brazda—111110113J. Louda—561281
WAug 18 · 18:30A. Brazda—811711113J. Louda—11611892
LApr 28 · 14:00A. Brazda—101050J. Louda—1212113
LMar 4 · 17:59A. Brazda—1580J. Louda—1111113
LMar 4 · 16:30A. Brazda—115521J. Louda—91111113
LFeb 19 · 21:30A. Brazda—61361192J. Louda—1111118113
LJan 29 · 22:26A. Brazda—661491J. Louda—111112113
LJan 29 · 19:00A. Brazda—79110J. Louda—1111133
LJan 5 · 20:00A. Brazda—3480J. Louda—1111113
LJan 3 · 18:02A. Brazda—11155552J. Louda—4131111113
A. Brazda10
WSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121WSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113WSep 3 · 17:30J. Simecek1.6510740A. Brazda2.101211113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Brazda2.1095111132J. Simecek1.67111177113WSep 3 · 15:00A. Brazda1.61515811113S. Kasnik2.20111311792WSep 3 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.6115661172A. Brazda2.201311112113LSep 1 · 17:30A. Brazda1.40118771S. Kasnik2.7591111113WSep 1 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.001111761A. Brazda1.7313711113WSep 1 · 15:00J. Louda1.40561281A. Brazda2.75111110113
J. Louda10
WSep 7 · 03:30M. Sychra2.40371191J. Louda1.5011117113WSep 7 · 02:30J. Louda1.731412113V. Vejvoda2.00121080LSep 7 · 01:30M. Sychra2.5012111112113J. Louda1.50149131062WSep 7 · 24:00J. Louda1.831111113K. Schopf1.838660WSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113WSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040WSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113LSep 4 · 09:30P. Saleny1.83111011113J. Louda1.83712481LSep 1 · 15:00J. Louda1.40561281A. Brazda2.75111110113
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