TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13060012
Played Sep 1Finished
Adam Brazda
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811711711––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:24 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Brazda to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Brazda above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Adam Brazda at 61.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Adam Brazda 15–7 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Brazda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-7 in 22
Brazda
Wrong
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brazda 1712 vs Kasnik 1736
Kasnik
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brazda 100% vs Kasnik 60%
Brazda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brazda 60% vs Kasnik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brazda +5 · Kasnik -1
Brazda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Brazda) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrazda 1.40 / Kasnik 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Brazda)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13060012
Brazda1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Kasnik2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 119 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back17% 26 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrazda9wins
AwayKasnik1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBrazda leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrazda100%6 of 6
AwayKasnik25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brazda6Kasnik4n = 10Brazda took 6 of 10
S2Brazda6Kasnik4n = 10Brazda took 6 of 10
S3Brazda9Kasnik1n = 10Brazda took 9 of 10
S4Brazda6Kasnik1n = 7Brazda took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrazdaKasnikB − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.432.5+6.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrazdaKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 394 vs 469 / 97947%47.9%185 / 394 vs 469 / 979Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrazdaBrazda 1.40/Kasnik 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Brazda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kasnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 16:00A. Brazda—13711113S. Kasnik—1111761
WAug 12 · 21:30A. Brazda—1011611113S. Kasnik—12711992
WAug 12 · 18:30A. Brazda—71111113S. Kasnik—119431
WMay 21 · 17:00A. Brazda—121111113S. Kasnik—142661
WMay 21 · 15:30A. Brazda—1111113S. Kasnik—9880
LMar 9 · 16:00A. Brazda—6311121S. Kasnik—11118143
WFeb 17 · 19:30A. Brazda—11813113S. Kasnik—8111191
WJan 4 · 08:30A. Brazda—11813113S. Kasnik—6111181
WDec 8 · 19:00A. Brazda—1111133S. Kasnik—79110
WNov 19 · 17:00A. Brazda—1111103S. Kasnik—4570
A. Brazda10
WSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121WSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113WSep 6 · 10:00A. Brazda2.6391111143J. Louda1.441198121WSep 3 · 17:30J. Simecek1.6510740A. Brazda2.101211113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Brazda2.1095111132J. Simecek1.67111177113WSep 3 · 15:00A. Brazda1.61515811113S. Kasnik2.20111311792WSep 3 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.6115661172A. Brazda2.201311112113WSep 1 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.001111761A. Brazda1.7313711113WSep 1 · 15:00J. Louda1.40561281A. Brazda2.75111110113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113LSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181WSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner1.571311510102S. Kasnik2.251191112123LSep 3 · 15:00A. Brazda1.61515811113S. Kasnik2.20111311792LSep 1 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.001111761A. Brazda1.7313711113
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