TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052616
Played Sep 1Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113117711611––
Adam Brazda
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:46 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Brazda to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Adam Brazda below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 77 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Brazda at 60.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 7–14 Adam Brazda Sebastian Kasnik has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Brazda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Brazda
Correct
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1740 vs Brazda 1698
Kasnik
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 80% vs Brazda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 70% vs Brazda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +2 · Brazda +4
Brazda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Brazda) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brazda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.00 / Brazda 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Brazda)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052616
Kasnik2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 119 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back17% 26 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 89
Brazda1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 41 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik2wins
AwayBrazda8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBrazda leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik40%2 of 5
AwayBrazda100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik5Brazda5n = 10split evenly
S2Kasnik3Brazda7n = 10Brazda took 7 of 10
S3Kasnik2Brazda8n = 10Brazda took 8 of 10
S4Kasnik1Brazda6n = 7Brazda took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikBrazdaK − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.939.4−5.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikBrazdaBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 978 vs 185 / 39548%46.8%469 / 978 vs 185 / 395Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrazdaKasnik 2.00/Brazda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Brazda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brazda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 21:30S. Kasnik—12711992A. Brazda—1011611113
LAug 12 · 18:30S. Kasnik—119431A. Brazda—71111113
LMay 21 · 17:00S. Kasnik—142661A. Brazda—121111113
LMay 21 · 15:30S. Kasnik—9880A. Brazda—1111113
WMar 9 · 16:00S. Kasnik—11118143A. Brazda—6311121
LFeb 17 · 19:30S. Kasnik—8111191A. Brazda—11813113
LJan 4 · 08:30S. Kasnik—6111181A. Brazda—11813113
LDec 8 · 19:00S. Kasnik—79110A. Brazda—1111133
LNov 19 · 17:00S. Kasnik—4570A. Brazda—1111103
WNov 13 · 21:00S. Kasnik—1110116113A. Brazda—61251182
S. Kasnik10
LSep 5 · 09:00O. Svacha1.44111110123S. Kasnik2.637312101LSep 5 · 08:00V. Nohejl1.611411113S. Kasnik2.2012480WSep 5 · 07:00V. Vejvoda1.579950S. Kasnik2.251111113LSep 5 · 06:30S. Kasnik2.106190O. Svacha1.671111113LSep 4 · 13:30S. Kasnik2.108750V. Vejvoda1.651111113LSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872WSep 4 · 11:30S. Kasnik2.2012117113V. Vejvoda1.611061181WSep 4 · 10:30R. Wagner1.571311510102S. Kasnik2.251191112123LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik2.25117981R. Wagner1.5781111113LSep 4 · 08:00S. Kasnik2.75111051322P. Saleny1.405121111113
A. Brazda10
WSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121WSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113WSep 6 · 10:00A. Brazda2.6391111143J. Louda1.441198121WSep 3 · 17:30J. Simecek1.6510740A. Brazda2.101211113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Brazda2.1095111132J. Simecek1.67111177113WSep 3 · 15:00A. Brazda1.61515811113S. Kasnik2.20111311792WSep 3 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.6115661172A. Brazda2.201311112113LSep 1 · 17:30A. Brazda1.40118771S. Kasnik2.7591111113WSep 1 · 15:00J. Louda1.40561281A. Brazda2.75111110113
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