TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082461
Played Sep 6Finished
Petr Saleny
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012711––––
Mark Robin Wagner
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Saleny above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 57.7%
59 points played in total.
H2H Petr Saleny 1–2 Mark Robin Wagner Petr Saleny has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saleny 1600 vs Wagner 1723
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saleny 20% vs Wagner 40%
Wagner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saleny 50% vs Wagner 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Saleny -2 · Wagner -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaleny 2.20 / Wagner 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Wagner)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082461
Saleny2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 29 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Wagner1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 52 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it83% 35 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSaleny1wins
AwayWagner2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderWagner leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saleny1Wagner2n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S2Saleny2Wagner1n = 3Saleny took 2 of 3
S3Saleny1Wagner2n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSalenyWagnerS − WBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.044.7−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalenyWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 418 vs 84 / 15150%55.6%209 / 418 vs 84 / 151Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerSaleny 2.20/Wagner 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 10:30P. Saleny—1212710102M. Wagner—10101112123
WSep 6 · 09:00P. Saleny—111117113M. Wagner—1381591
LSep 6 · 07:00P. Saleny—81070M. Wagner—1112113
P. Saleny10
LSep 6 · 13:01J. Louda1.531112113P. Saleny2.3871040LSep 6 · 12:30J. Louda1.831312113P. Saleny1.83111070LSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113LSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102WSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:30P. Saleny2.00125781M. Klement1.73101111113LSep 6 · 06:00V. Vejvoda1.5711127113P. Saleny2.255101151LSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452WSep 4 · 12:30P. Saleny1.40811611113S. Kasnik2.7511711872LSep 4 · 11:00P. Saleny2.2061151192R. Wagner1.61118117113
M. Wagner10
LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113WSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110LSep 6 · 06:30M. Wagner1.5375111192M. Klement2.38111189113LSep 4 · 03:28J. Simecek1.801111113M. Wagner1.918880WSep 4 · 02:30J. Simecek1.73112911102M. Wagner2.00811119123WSep 4 · 01:00M. Sychra2.00711661M. Wagner1.7311811113
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