TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13083888
Played Sep 7Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119911113811
Marek Chlebecek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Marek Chlebecek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 55.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 5–4 Marek Chlebecek Marek Chlebecek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Chlebecek beat Cermak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:18What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1579 vs Chlebecek 1575
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 60% vs Chlebecek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 50% vs Chlebecek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak +2 · Chlebecek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.73 / Chlebecek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chlebecek)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13083888
Cermak1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 151 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it79% 119 of 150
Chlebecek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeCermak5wins
AwayChlebecek4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderCermak leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak57.1%4 of 7
AwayChlebecekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak7Chlebecek2n = 9Cermak took 7 of 9
S2Cermak5Chlebecek4n = 9Cermak took 5 of 9
S3Cermak5Chlebecek4n = 9Cermak took 5 of 9
S4Cermak3Chlebecek2n = 5Cermak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricCermakChlebecekCermak − ChlebecekBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match37.034.0+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakChlebecekBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1058 vs 110 / 23151.3%47.6%543 / 1058 vs 110 / 231Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakCermak 1.73/Chlebecek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chlebecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 6 · 20:00V. Cermak—116141272M. Chlebecek—9111610113
WAug 23 · 22:30V. Cermak—101111113M. Chlebecek—125971
WJul 20 · 02:30V. Cermak—111113113M. Chlebecek—6131181
LJul 11 · 01:30V. Cermak—3940M. Chlebecek—1111113
LJun 16 · 22:30V. Cermak—113681M. Chlebecek—71111113
WJun 8 · 03:03V. Cermak—1111153M. Chlebecek—87130
LJun 7 · 22:30V. Cermak—11116992M. Chlebecek—921111113
WJun 7 · 20:00V. Cermak—1111113M. Chlebecek—2490
WFeb 9 · 12:30V. Cermak—1111123M. Chlebecek—44100
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192LAug 28 · 12:30J. Hradecky1.5011611133V. Cermak2.507118111
M. Chlebecek10
WSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101WSep 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5381111113M. Volf2.38114681WSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890LSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670LSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123LSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113WSep 2 · 03:30M. Regner1.91911681M. Chlebecek1.8011511113LSep 2 · 02:00M. Chlebecek1.838680J. Hradecky1.831111113
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