TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13090296
Played Sep 7Finished
Marek Chlebecek
Home
1.90
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111151191210––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Chlebecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Chlebecek above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Marek Chlebecek at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Marek Chlebecek 5–5 Vladimir Cermak Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Chlebecek beat Cermak 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlebecek 1596 vs Cermak 1568
Chlebecek
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlebecek 60% vs Cermak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlebecek 60% vs Cermak 40%
Chlebecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlebecek +3 · Cermak -1
Chlebecek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chlebecek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlebecek 1.90 / Cermak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chlebecek)+5.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13090296
Chlebecek1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Cermak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 151 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it79% 119 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlebecek5wins
AwayCermak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlebecek66.7%2 of 3
AwayCermak57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlebecek3Cermak7n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S2Chlebecek4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S3Chlebecek5Cermak5n = 10split evenly
S4Chlebecek2Cermak4n = 6Cermak took 4 of 6
S5Chlebecek3Cermak0n = 3Chlebecek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlebecekCermakChlebecek − CermakBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.2−3.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlebecekCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 233 vs 543 / 105948.1%51.3%112 / 233 vs 543 / 1059Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlebecekChlebecek 1.90/Cermak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chlebecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chlebecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 01:30M. Chlebecek—129113113V. Cermak—101191182
WSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek—9111610113V. Cermak—116141272
LAug 23 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—125971V. Cermak—101111113
LJul 20 · 02:30M. Chlebecek—6131181V. Cermak—111113113
WJul 11 · 01:30M. Chlebecek—1111113V. Cermak—3940
WJun 16 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—71111113V. Cermak—113681
LJun 8 · 03:03M. Chlebecek—87130V. Cermak—1111153
WJun 7 · 22:30M. Chlebecek—921111113V. Cermak—11116992
LJun 7 · 20:00M. Chlebecek—2490V. Cermak—1111113
LFeb 9 · 12:30M. Chlebecek—44100V. Cermak—1111123
M. Chlebecek10
WSep 7 · 02:30M. Chlebecek1.5381111113M. Volf2.38114681WSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890LSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670LSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123LSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113WSep 2 · 03:30M. Regner1.91911681M. Chlebecek1.8011511113LSep 2 · 02:00M. Chlebecek1.838680J. Hradecky1.831111113
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192LAug 28 · 12:30J. Hradecky1.5011611133V. Cermak2.507118111
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